It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened. I've been thinking about the local precedent we have for it. Up the road in Hartlepool they elected a man in a monkey costume back in 2002.
The monkey was H'Angus the Monkey - the town's football mascot. The man in the costume, Stuart Drummond. After the election he took the costume off and carried out his role as elected mayor in person. He then went on to get re-elected twice. So, though it began as a joke, he didn't do too badly.
[The character of H'Angus was inspired by the monkey-hanger legend of Hartlepool. Apparently, during the Napoleonic Wars, a French ship was wrecked upon the coast. The only thing that survived was a monkey. Having never seen a Frenchman before the locals assumed it was a French spy and hung it. Or so the story goes.]
It's interesting how some of these themes come round in circles. The lack of seriousness at the time was down to the fact that a lot of people didn't want an elected mayor - deeming it needless and costly devolution. Now, of course, we have Manchester mayor Andy Burnham coming to save the country, partly as a consequence of those Labour devolution efforts. And promising more of that devolution when he's in charge.
Also, the local Hartlepool MP at the time was a certain Peter Mandelson. When Drummond won Mandelson supposedly took him to one side and complained that "he'd made the town a laughing stock." Though he then went on camera moments later and praised Drummond. Understanding only too well - perhaps more so than current politicians - that expressing his true opinion wouldn't be savvy.
So, the Clacton election..
Unlikely though it would be I think a win for the bin would actually be worse for the mainstream parties. As I think the hangover would be much worse than the night out.
The night itself would be incredible. The people supporting the bin would be giddy with excitement. The anticipation, the announcement, the look on Nigel Farage's face as the results are read out. The memes, the amusement. The TV coverage. It would certainly be a night of fervour and exuberance.
However, the next morning the people would wake up with a headache and a man in a bin costume lying next to them. With nothing much else to show for it.
Then would come the question of whether he continues to wear the bin, or whether he takes it off as the Hartlepool mayor did. If the costume remains it'll be silly. So that's a non-starter. If the costume comes off you end up with a remainiac BBC writer representing the Brexity area of Clacton. Further illustrating that the bin is only a proxy for the established parties. If that wasn't clear enough already.
And the people who supported the candidate, who enjoyed the exciting night, will have to own that subsequent reality. The voters will at least have the luxury of pretending they didn't vote for him. People publicly declaring their support will have it permanently on their CV though.
Of course, you could say the monkey-suited guy did well after he took the costume off, so maybe the same could happen here. Personally, I can't imagine that being the case, as there the candidate was local. Plus, there wasn't the national divide we have today. Still, it's possible.
As For Nigel
Here it's more interesting, as I think it would only be the end for Farage if he chose to walk away. As in practical reality it wouldn't change very much. The people that like Farage would still like him, and the people that hate him would still hate him.
So he could remain as leader. Keep doing his GB News show. Take a break. Allow some time for the dust to settle. Then go back and stand for the seat at the General Election. Where he would no doubt win. Unless the man in the bin somehow managed to win over the constituents without the gimmick - to the extent that he could win an election where multiple parties were standing. Which is even less likely than him winning this one.
Farage can't even do much in parliament anyway at the moment, so again, in practical terms it wouldn't make much difference.
This is all assuming there aren't internal wrangles and panics within Reform following such a defeat.
So I think it can only go wrong for Reform long term if it's self-inflicted.
All the framing in the media at the moment says that Farage made a mistake in resigning his seat. The, "He'll look like an idiot standing against a bin" general opinion. However, the major mistake was when the mainstream parties rallied around the bin in response. Without thinking it through.
Farage made his announcement at 2 pm. An hour later we saw this tweet from David Aaronovitch:
"One other thing. If I were the other parties, I leave Farage to his by election. Call it a stunt and let him fight it out with Count Binface."




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