Stockton South - Con Gain

Another seat where there isn't too much for me to say.

(click to enlarge)

As with the last seat we can see that the Labour candidate had a decent social media showing, yet still tanked. We're seeing a bit of a pattern where what's happening online isn't really a reflection of what's going on in real life. Again, I put this down to the fact that there is a vocal minority of people who take an active, continued interest in politics. I very much fit into this category. Then there's the rest of the population. The majority. Who aren't as loud or obsessed with it all, but who take an interest in a loose or general sense, then come out and vote when it gets important.

Of course, there's also another big chunk of people who don't vote at all. Or do so rarely. So it's a greying scale and all these things blend into one another.

Stockton North - Labour Hold

This is one that was pretty close, with the Conservatives just a thousand or so votes behind. So it could have switched.

(click to enlarge)

Perhaps the most noticeable thing about this table is the lack of social media figures for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Again, as with the last few posts, it could just be a case that I couldn't find them. After all, I did spend a lot less time and effort looking at these seats in comparison to Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.

The fact that I couldn't find them in of itself (even if they were there) says something valuable though. If I struggled to find them no doubt others did too. And most people don't go out of their way to look. It's normally a case of the candidate party reaching out to them.

The Brexit Party took a near four thousand votes here. So it's easy to make the case that had they not stood much of those votes would've went to the Conservative candidate, swinging the seat. However, in reality it's not so cut and dry and it's clear that the Brexit Party across the north badly damaged Labour too.

You wonder if a bigger, more active push on the social media front could've made the difference here for the Conservatives. Not just through garnering more votes, but also by driving the general sense of confidence and momentum.

I should really refrain from this type of guesswork though, as again, my knowledge of this seat and the various campaigns running was very limited.

(Feel free to add or correct any information in the comments below).

Quiet Revolution

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland today. It'll be a brief one this one. A straight up solid victory for the Tories. Nothing much else to say.

(click to enlarge)

The only real noticeable thing about the information is the superior social media gains of the Labour candidate. In spite of the fact that they performed badly and saw their vote share slashed further. This has been a general trend in all the seats I've looked at and seems to suggest that Labour (and Labour supporters) are simply more active in general on social media than the Conservatives. At least in this region of the country anyway. Tory voters really do seem to be a silent majority in every sense.

Of course, it's also no doubt age related too. With older voters tending to be more right-leaning and less active online.

New Blue Redcar

Tables all done. Of the last five let's start with Redcar, which went over to the Conservatives.

(click to enlarge)

I haven't went as crazy with the colouring with these ones. Just highlighting the winning candidate.

The Labour candidate's vote really got decimated here. This was quite an incredible result. I think all the other candidates can take some credit in pulling votes from her. The fact that the Brexit Party candidate, Jacqui Cummins, essentially pulled out in the last few days no doubt made a huge difference.

As for the data in the tables what stands out to me is that we have another independent candidate giving a decent showing (1,323 votes, over double the Green vote and not too distant from the Lib Dem vote). Once again the social media profile is similar to the independents standing in Hartlepool and Middlesbrough. Very nice Facebook figures, very poor Twitter presence.

His Facebook page presence dwarfs the Brexit Party, Lib Dem and Green Party presence and is almost at parity with the Conservative candidate. Conversely on Twitter he had just 10 followers.

(I should mention for context that where there are no figures in the table it's because I couldn't find a Facebook page/Twitter profile for the candidate. That's not to say one didn't exist, it may simply be that I myself couldn't find it - sometimes things can get buried on social media, especially if they're not labelled with the correct keywords. Plus I'm just 'some guy' on the internet with limited time and resources, so none of this should be taken as exhaustive.

The lack of a final Twitter figure for the Brexit Party candidate is because her account was deactivated. I'm guessing by herself when she pulled from the race.)

So returning to the independents it really does seem like these candidates were tapping into a seam that the major parties weren't quite reaching. Completely outside the media and Twitter bubble. Focused locally both out on the street and on Facebook.

More tables..

Just a few more tables to do now. The ones I have left are;

• Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
• Redcar
• Stockton North
• Stockton South
• & Sedgefield

I only have a week's worth of information for each of these, and some of that is fragmented. So it shouldn't take too long.

Again, as with the first two, I don't know how much value will be found. However, with these seats I haven't really had a good look at the actual results in any detail yet, so at least it'll feel a bit more fresh.

Hopefully I'll get a few of these tables knocked off today. I'll then probably do a seat each day for the next five days.

Hartlepool - Table Time

I finally got some tables knocked up. I found a burst of energy late last night.

(A little one showing the basic result)

Brexit Party third, but the vote share of the top two both dropped.

(Twitter and Facebook in the weeks up leading

- click to enlarge)

The excessive colours probably just add to the confusion. I think I just enjoyed the colouring-in too much. Incidentally the Twitter "week 3" should also read 6 days not 7.

A little bit of context; For the Liberal Democrat candidate I had to use the Facebook page for the Hartlepool Liberal Democrats as there didn't appear to be a specific candidate page. Likewise when it came to Twitter I had to use the Hartlepool Conservatives account and the Hartlepool Socialist Labour Party account for their respective candidates.

Also, the original Twitter figure for Richard Tice was just an approximation. As I just noted the 60.8k rounded figure as displayed on Twitter when I first began. Instead of hovering my little cursor and getting the specific number.

What Can We Learn..

As with the Middlesbrough information I gathered I don't think there's too much here that reveals anything especially interesting. However, the one thing that stands out to me is that once again we have an independent candidate with a decent whack of votes, a decent whack of Facebook likes and a poor showing on Twitter.

The independent candidate standing in Hartlepool was a young looking guy by the name of Joe Bousfield. I know very little about him or his politics, and just have the numbers to go on. After the Labour and Brexit Party candidates he had the most Facebook likes.

344 doesn't seem like a great deal, but as anyone who's tried to build a Facebook page for a business/band/project/etc will know, anything in the hundreds is pretty damn good. Especially when compared to the Conservative's measly 44 and the Lib Dem's 13.

The two candidates above him both had a huge advantage too. The Labour candidate being the established candidate in a heavily Labour area, and Richard Tice, of course, being a major national figure in politics.

As for Twitter it was quite the opposite. His account having just the 3 followers after "week 1". Following which his account seemed to disappear, at least for me trying to find it anyway. I'm guessing he may have took it down. Deeming the lack of action on it more a hindrance to his chances than a help. Which was a smart and sensible move if indeed that was the case.

In the actual election itself he got 911 votes. Again not massively mind blowing, but still quite an impressive toll for an independent candidate in a crowded field.

In Middlesbrough Central the independent candidate Antony High performed similarly. Though to a much greater extreme. His page had the second most Facebook likes - a huge five thousand, on a par with the Labour incumbent. And again, he pulled in an impressive number of votes; 4,548 in total. Likewise his Twitter was quiet and unimpressive. Having the second least followers. Above only the Green candidate.

Conclusion.

This tells me that these candidates have been tapping into something the major parties haven't. By being active in the local community and combining that with a Facebook, not Twitter, focused campaign they've picked up a large swathe of voters.

There's been much talk of how the "remainer" establishment and the Labour Party in tow have been trapped in the Twitter bubble. However, it seems that we've all been trapped there to some degree. With remain/LibDem/Labour just being the worst offenders.

Facebook is local and more intimate. It's where many "normal" people - the type of people who aren't obsessed with politics the way bloggers like me are - get their information concerning politics. With it coming through a more local filter. Almost by osmosis as a subsection of local gossip and local news in general.

I think any party that can learn how to tap into this may get big dividends at the next election.

Also it makes me wonder if the work balance of MPs is correct. Should they be spending more time in their communities and a bit less time at Westminster. There's clearly been a communication issue, with politicians losing touch with what normal constituents think. The information flow and communication opportunities of the Internet should in theory have helped things, but in actuality it's created a further wall. A layering effect.

(There's so much information online it takes real intelligence to dig through it all and know where to focus. People who can cut through it, like Trump, are doing well. Many are getting lost though.)

Perhaps there could be some minor reform made to how British politics operates to give politicians more time in their constituency.

Also, if this trend towards "localism" continues it makes me think that some kind of Scottish Independence will be inevitable. The distance between Scotland and London, especially in regards the travelling time, just adds a further layer.

Miles Away in a Manger

Yeah, not doing much today either. Still too lazy. Slept in til 3:30 pm ! (working nights has completely messed up my body clock). I went to bed early, shattered, but after falling asleep for about an hour or so I ended up awake most of the night. No sign of Santa. I did get some presents though, so he must have worked some magic.

Also, I've started listening to The Count of Monte Cristo in audiobook form. Getting through another chapter last night. I've been meaning to read it for such a long time, but I struggle to focus time on works of fiction. I find it much easier (and I guess more useful) reading non-fiction. So I've finally decided to give audiobooks a whirl. Pretty good so far.

Merry Christmas readers.

Exhausted On Christmas Eve

New post. Christmas Eve. I'm struggling to stay awake so hopefully I'll actually get somewhere before I completely crash out.

[..10 mins later]

I've knocked up a little table of the Hartlepool result. I'm too tired to attempt to tabulate the likes and followers though. So I'll continue tomorrow. Maybe.

Merry Christmas 🎅

Christmassy stuff..

I'd like to crack on doing some more spreadsheets. It's surprisingly therapeutic. But these last two days I have too much normal, Christmassy stuff to do. So I'll have to palm off a few more short posts.

I should mention the little (but festive) spat I had on Twitter yesterday though. The hardcore #FBPE crowd still haven't quite let go. In spite of two knockout electoral defeats. It's a bit sad to see in a way. I actually feel a bit bad for some of them. I would just leave it be, but what triggered me was a cartoon image from a German publication portraying Boris as a Nazis. Obviously it's just cartoon satire, but I do think it's important to challenge such stuff as it's a very unhelpful comparison to keep making. Most British people (at least most non-#FBPE British people) naturally see this stuff as total nonsense, but the rest of the world, and the rest of Europe in particular, generally have to go by secondhand information.

So suggesting that this is not the will of the British public is a huge misrepresentation. Brexit has been pushed from the ground up. Not from the top down. Quite the opposite of anything dictatorial.

The sooner everyone, both inside and outside of the UK, accepts that democracy has spoken and that Brexit is happening the better it will be for everyone. So the false narrative that it's somehow not democratic is both incorrect and dangerous. It just sows division between Britain and those countries choosing to remain in the EU.

Let's just get on with making the best of the situation in 2020.

sidetracked..

Was planning on posting properly today, but got sidetracked arguing with remainers on Twitter. So now I have no time. I really need to stop doing this. I think my New Year's resolution should be to stop using the terms 'leaver' and 'remainer'.

Fresh start definitely needed.

Localism, untapped potential

I knocked up this table late last night. It ain't great. Probably could've been labelled better. As you can see there is no data for the Tory candidate for the first week. Plus the Labour Twitter figures for that week are only approximations (I stupidly just took the rounded figure as displayed on my phone screen).

(click to enlarge)

Again, I don't think too much can be learnt from any of this. It's all pretty arbitrary. I think it would've been much better if I'd have started earlier. It would have given a broader picture. Plus I could've displayed the information in the form of a graph which would be more pleasing and easier to read.

Perhaps the most striking thing looking at this is that the independent candidate Antony High starts things with a whacking great four thousand Facebook page likes. Right up there with the more established Andy McDonald. This is very impressive. In fact, his final 'likes' tally was pretty similar to his vote number (4,822 and 4,548 respectively). Suggesting that many of those liking the Facebook page also went out and voted for him.

I think this is probably quite important. I going to give this the label "localism". I've mentioned before on here that most normal people tend to prefer local issues to national ones. With Facebook being "local" and Twitter being more "national" (and international). I think the Middlesbrough Mayor Andy Preston capitalised on this to great effect in his mayoral campaign earlier this year. It was then exercised to equally good effect (given the circumstances) by his deputy Antony High in this campaign.

Of course, it's not just Facebook it must be remembered. It's also about going out and essentially networking in the local community. In fact, this is what often pushes people to then go and like the Facebook page. The two things work in tandem. Mutually reinforcing each other.

By the time the Conservative candidate Ruth Betson (based in Cambridgeshire) and the Brexit Party candidate Faye Clements (based in the not quite so far away Thirsk) hit the ground they were already well behind in the ground/Facebook war.

It was always going to be incredibly difficult for an independent candidate to win at a national election. They're completely excluded from the sweeping national, party driven narrative. This is perhaps partly why the Antony High campaign lost momentum in the final week or so. It was an impressive vote tally nonetheless though. One that parties can really learn a lesson from as I think in future any party that can marry the national message with this level of "localism" can really sweep up.

Middlesbrough Central. Tables (!)

Okay, so I have some tables.

I don't think the information regarding Facebook and Twitter adds a great deal of value, but it's worth sharing nonetheless. I think it was at least an interesting little experiment. The columns show the change in likes/followers for the last two weeks in the run up to the election (well, up until the 08/12/19 anyway, which was when I last took note. The election of course being on December 12th.).

I actually have three weeks worth of information, but I didn't have the correct Facebook page for the Conservative candidate for the first two weeks (doh!). So it's skewed a little. I may tabulate that too though, as what I was really interested in was the change over the weeks. Thinking it might give a measure of momentum.

(click to enlarge)

I've colour coded first, second and third ranking in each column. Unsurprisingly more likes/followers tends to crudely correlate with more votes. I've also included a column showing the increase in likes/followers as a percentage of that candidate's likes/followers.

Obviously it's easy to get more attention and traffic once you're an established figure, as your following then amplifies your message. Meaning you can then reach even more people with every post. So 20 new followers for someone with a 100 followers is much more impressive than 20 new followers for someone with 100,000. The first one hundred subs are the hardest as they say.

However, the really interesting figures are the standard figures we've all seen by now, showing the actual votes and the change in vote share. Something I haven't really commented upon yet.

Interestingly, the Conservative vote share dropped. Though just a little. This would kind of back up my general feeling that the Conservatives never had a chance here. Especially as they fielded a candidate from quite a good way away. It's all a little moot though as with Labour hanging on to over 50% of the vote it means that it was highly unlikely any other candidate could've won. Even had the pro-Brexit vote not been split three ways.

Scotland Part II

I might finally get round to spreadsheeting the election information after I've typed this. Might.

Anyway, I've been thinking more about Scotland. I saw a YouGov poll yesterday showing that a majority of Scots want a referendum (46% for to 43% against). In comparison to the rest of the UK, where only 27% of those polled wanted one.

Again, that divergence.

Really I think we need to look at the big historical picture. Time and again throughout history we see that whenever England has issues with Europe the Scots becomes the euro-aligned thorn (or thistle) in England's back.

This was largely ended when England and Scotland aligned and conjoined following the Reformation. Though even then the Scottish path was somewhat different. England had Henry VIII's divorce from Rome. The Scots took a more Knoxian route.

This would lead me to believe that if Scotland and England are to remain aligned going forward then the Scots need to find their own version or flavour of Brexit. Similar to how they found their own flavour of antipathy to the Church of Rome.

I've just watched Ian Blackford, leader of the SNP in parliament, speak in parliament (did we really win the election?). The SNP still sound thoroughly pro-EU. So it's not looking good on that front. Perhaps we need a new brand of Scottish independence.

Diverging Scotland

I didn't get a chance to post yesterday (!) breaking my long run of posting every day, which began back in May. I had an excuse though - Christmas shopping, and being called into work early. It does mean I'm not getting a great deal done though at the moment.

What I've been thinking about most over the last day or so is Scotland. Aside from not getting the scale right most of my gut feelings have been fairly close to the mark, but with Scotland I've been very wrong.

In my opinion Scotland, particularly the towns and cities of the lowlands are very similar to northern England. With similar people, similar characteristics and similar problems. So I was expecting that over time Scotland would start moving in a similar direction to the North of England and Wales. That absolutely doesn't seem to be happening though, and if anything Scotland seems to be diverging even more.

It stands to reason that people voting SNP want independence, but it doesn't always work like that in reality. People vote for many reasons. I get the feeling that the SNP are now entrenched as "our party" in Scotland. So is it just a case of voting for a party that people feel will represent them better than the others, with the actual nationalism being a lesser issue?

Aftermath Analysis

My plan before the election was to compare social media likes/followers with the actual results. Particularly with regard to rate of change. I'll do this in good time, however, I'm now much less inclined to think I'll find anything of value doing this. I will do it though. I might have a little start mocking up some tables tomorrow if I have time.

It's probably worth stating too that Farage was right in many ways and that the Brexit Party did help the Conservatives in many seats by stripping down the Labour vote. In my blushing backtrack to praise the Conservative campaign in the election aftermath I failed to mention this. (That was quite a sentence wasn't it). But he was right. It varied and worked the other way in some seats, but the general thesis was correct and it needs remembering.

I know some people in my everyday life that would vote Brexit Party, but that would never consider going Conservative. Again, that northern cultural antipathy to the Conservatives. Something which is clearly breaking down, but which nevertheless is still a huge factor. I also had experience of people voting Labour "to stop the Conservatives", even though they themselves were unhappy with Labour and thinking about other parties. They still viewed Labour as the lesser evil. So perhaps Conservatives standing in some of these very hard Labour seats actually budged up the Labour vote.

It would've been nice if the Conservatives had stood aside in at least one seat so we would be able to have a comparison with which to judge the other results by.

A few other factors also counting against the Brexit Party worth mentioning are, firstly; the psychology, driven by everyone stating that they can't win. Something further hammered home by the Conservatives not giving them a foot in the door. People are very disinclined to vote for a party they think can't win. So once this narrative is established it's very difficult to overcome.

Secondly, the Channel 4 exposé featuring the racist Brexit Party councillor in Hartlepool. This was very damaging indeed. I didn't watch it when it went out (I'm not a big fan of Channel 4 News 😏 ), but I caught it just before the election. It made the Brexit Party look like the BNP. Of course, it's a complete misrepresentation of what the party is and what they stand for, but it played into the media narrative perfectly.

I mentioned to a work colleague I'd voted Brexit Party and they immediately brought it up. It was very embarrassing and very hard to explain. No one wants to be associated with people who speak and behave like that, even if in just a tenuous way. So it will no doubt have put many people off.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Brexit Party now. It feels like they've served their purpose, but things change pretty quickly. Plus, I can only see the Labour Party collapsing further now. They've completely lost touch with their base and have no figures in the party capable of leading them back. So there certainly is a gap for something.

Beginning to digest the election..

I think I'm finally starting to digest the election, so I'm ready to write more than a paragraph. The interesting question concerns whether it was right or not for the Conservatives to field candidates in every seat.

My view before the election was that they should've stood down in a few seats where the Tories never win in order to give the Brexit Party a free run. However, with the Conservatives getting a whopping majority it's pretty hard to criticise the plan they went with. Certainly in places like Hartlepool and Barnsley it looks like Brexit Party candidates (or alternately Conservative candidates perhaps) could've won had the leave vote been united behind a single person. It's easy to see this in hindsight though, and in many other seats the Brexit Party vote share wasn't quite as impressive.

This is something I'll come back to later. It's worth noting though that my biggest failing before the election was underestimating the silent Conservative vote. For instance, going solely by social media profile the Conservative campaign in Hartlepool looked almost none existent. Yet Stefan Houghton pulled in 11,869 votes, a thousand more than Richard Tice. Even in Middlesbrough the Conservative candidate was comfortably in second place. The 8,812 votes Ruth Betson pulled in were hard to find in the run up to the election. I saw the odd person saying they were voting that way, but it was otherwise very quiet. Then bang, nine thousand votes, and this for a candidate based in Cambridgeshire.

So that's a great lesson to bear in mind going forward.

The Labour Party

As for the Labour Party I feel much more confident in my appraisals. Corbyn isn't quite gone yet (I bet many more grass-rootsy type people in the Labour Party will be reluctant to let him go, so who knows). However, all the talk now is about his successor ..and there's literally no one. There's not a single standout person who can potentially lift the party.

So we might be seeing its death. If it ends up being someone like Jess Philips or Emily Thornberry then they'll lose their grassroots support (and I would suspect any public appeal they have left too). If they go for a Corbynite candidate then it'll push many of the more Blairite people out, and they'll head towards being a full-on old school socialist party. Again will limited appeal. Though in that scenario at least with some authenticity.

Whichever root they go down will result in some kind of split, and on both sides there's a sheer lack intellect. That's a bit of a pretentious word to use, but I can't think of a better one. There simply doesn't seem to be anyone left with any real gravitas.

..and all was quiet

It feels like a calm has came across the nation. Apart from a few pockets of protesters and the odd unyielding political figure it seems like everyone has accepted that this has decided the Brexit issue. I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts :)

(Oh, and it goes without saying that none of my bets paid off. Not that I'm complaining.)

Relief

I'm not going to post much today. I'm just relieved. Once again the collective British will has took us in the right direction somehow. The right direction according to my worldview at least anyway.

Very clear mandate to Get Brexit Done. We can all enjoy Christmas now knowing that next year we won't have the same division in parliament that we've had for the last three. Hopefully.

Christ, I Hate Labour

Well, the big day is here. I really should be typing some big, special post or something, but what can you say at this point. We have no real way of knowing what will happen and it's just a waiting game now.

I have a sense of foreboding about the result. I actually feel like Corbyn is doing well. This might be a product of my location though. Middlesbrough is a strong Labour area and they were always going to be out in force. It's a bit depressing watching many people I know coming out in favour of Labour. They've caused so much trouble in parliament over the last few years. How on earth can people watch that behaviour and then choose more of that?

One thing that's very apparent to me is that many Labour voters aren't really voting for Labour - they're voting for Corbyn. So many traditional Labour voters really love the guy. It's like a personality cult.

I need to cheer up a bit more I think. Normally I tend to enjoy election night, whatever the result, but it might be a depressing experience this time if things don't go the right way.

I'm also working a night shift tonight :( ..beginning at 10 pm, exactly when the polls close. Hopefully I'll finish early (maybe 2ish) and get to watch the drama. If it's a long one though and I'm there 'til 4 or 5 o'clock it'll be a case of having a lot of catching up to do after I finish.

Ready To Go :)

I got my little list together. Let's see how it goes.

Easington - 12/1
Doncaster North - 12/1
Heywood and Middleton - 16/1
South Shields - 50/1
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle - 12/1
Kingston upon Hull East - 10/1
Barnsley East - 9/1
Great Grimsby - 22/1
Barnsley Central - 8/1
Hartlepool - 5/1
Middlesbrough 25/1

..but Farage is compromising on Brexit isn't he?

I've started to get together my little list of 10 seats. I'm certainly not feeling optimistic that anything close to 10 will come good. The Brexit Party are really up against it, and the Tories have not helped them out one bit. Surely they could've at least threw them the Hartlepool seat.

The Brexit Party candidate for Redcar essentially stood down today too. Fearing that she was splitting the vote. So yet again we see the Brexit Party compromising.

Ironically the big opposition that the Conservatives have to Brexit Party MPs being in parliament is that they believe they won't compromise and back the "soft" Boris Brexit deal. I guess this is a real fear, but again Farage has already compromised and helped that deal along by standing candidates down. Plus, surely it's desirable to harden the Boris deal over the course of the next year or so. Why not try to get a bit more? Surely a few BXP MPs would act as good leverage.

I'll share my little list of £1 bets tomorrow.

10 seats + 1

It wasn't possible to do an accumulator on the betting site I use. Probably for the best really, since it's highly unlikely I'd be able to get many, let alone every single selection right. That's even if the Brexit Party actually managed to get a significant number of seats. So I'm doing it super boring (and super cheap). I have £10 left in my account. So I'm going to pick the 10 most likely seats where the Brexit Party can win (plus Middlesbrough of course, how could I not) and putting a £1 bet on each (I know, I know, big money right! To be fair though I'm generally not much of gambler anyway. Plus I don't have that much money to begin with *sad face* ).

It'll be fun to see if I can at least win my £10 back.

So far I have;

Hartlepool 5/1 - £1
Barnsley Central 8/1 - £1
Great Grimsby 22/1 - £1
Middlesbrough 25/1 - £2 (I got a £2 free bet ! Middlesbrough is kind of the bonus ball in this.)

I now need to pick seven more seats.

(And don't worry, I'm still gathering data for the inquisition that will inevitably come after this election. Even though my posts for the run up will now all be about daft £1 bets.)

Brexitland Accumulator

After looking at Hartlepool I decided to check out Barnsley. This is another target area for the Brexit Party, with two seats in particular that are very interesting. Again you see similar things to what you see here in Middlesbrough. A similar sick-of-Labour, but reluctant to vote Tory attitude. It's all getting very interesting.

It's hard to predict what will happen in seats like these. I think it will all come down to how much the Labour vote collapses. If it really goes then will any one candidate have enough to take the seat from Labour with the vote being split? Maybe we might see some seats where three candidates are close for the win.

As for Middlesbrough Central itself Labour are starting to look an increasingly safe bet with the opposition vote split three ways. Brexit Party/Independent/Conservative. Also, though I've always said that the Conservatives can't win in seats like Middlesbrough, I'm now starting to wonder if that's not the case this time. With the Brexit Party and the Independent candidate potentially eating into the Labour vote could the Tory core vote, plus a little extra then give them enough to get over the line?? Farage does say that the Brexit Party helps the Tories in these working class seats.

Personally I'm still hoping for something magical from the Brexit Party here. I'm certainly voting that way and backing them locally. When it's this chaotic I think you just have to go with your heart and hope for the best. I can certainly feel momentum build for the Brexit Party as we move closer towards voting day too. So who knows.

I'm also tempted to put together a little Brexit Party accumulator with all the seats they could potentially win across the north :) Also I must remember to make a note of the all the odds for these various seats before polling day to then see how they match the reality. An accumulator might be a good way force myself to be interested :D

I think Richard Tice has a damn good chance in Hartlepool

I got in from a night shift about two hours ago, and instead of going to bed I've been sat online. I half-watched the Boris/Corbyn debate on the BBC. It was just the same old thing though. We all know these two so well now, so there's nothing much to learn really. I then gradually transitioned into browsing Facebook and Twitter. Ending with me reading the Facebook comments on the page for the local Hartlepool newspaper the Hartlepool Mail.

You see pretty much the exact same thing you see in the comments under Middlesbrough's local news. Many, many people hating Labour. Many, many people not trusting the Tories. I really think Richard Tice could do well there. Obviously it's hard to predict these things. Plus browsing social media comments is hardly scientific. However, there is a lot of information out there on social media these days, and I get the feeling that the mainstream media and the higher-ups for want of a better term don't really do their homework. How many are reading the comments on the Hartlepool Mail Facebook page? The way the political class misunderstand the situation up here suggests not many.

If Labour cling on up here it will be due to vote splitting and little positive on their part.

Twitter and Facebook Figures For Hartlepool

So Hartlepool, plus the change over seven days.

First up Facebook;

Richard Tice (BXP); 36,018 (+76)
Mike Hill (Lab); 1,367 (+11)
Joe Bousfield (Ind); 340 (+4)
Kevin Cranney (SLP); 81 (+0)
Stefan Houghton (Con); 30 (+0)
Andy Hagon (LD); 13 (+0)

..and Twitter;

Richard Tice (Brexit); 61,678 (+409)
Mike Hill (Labour); 2,410 (+13)
Andy Hagon (LD); 89 (+3)
Kevin Cranney (SLP); 585 (+2)
Stefan Houghton (Con); 19 (+0)

(I couldn't find the Twitter account for the independent candidate.)

I still don't get how mainstream pundits and pollsters can claim that the Tories are the challengers to Labour in this seat. Of course, the above is just social media, so it shouldn't be taken too seriously, but nevertheless, you need momentum to take a seat. If your social media presence is so lacking in the week leading up to an election it's not a good sign.

Much of Richard Tice's increases are no doubt a product of his national profile. So it's impossible to know how many of the new Facebook fans are from the Hartlepool constituency. Still though, it's much better than the Conservative's zero. It will be fascinating to watch this seat on polling night.

Changing Dynamics

I'll keep it short as I don't have a great deal of time today.

We had the Middlesbrough hustings last night. Sadly I wasn't there, so I only have secondhand accounts of what happened, but apparently the Brexit Party candidate Faye Clements got heckled so much she couldn't even answer her first question and had to walk off.

Again, I don't know what happened for certain, so can't really pass judgement. However, given the way this campaign has unfolded so far I don't really find it surprising. Having looked at the response on social media though I think it's probably working in Faye Clements' favour. So it could be one of those turning point moments. It's certainly changed the dynamics quite a bit.

Seven days of madness left now.

Data Days

Short little dull post today. I'm just collecting data. Mainly so that after the election I'll be able to see what correlates and what doesn't. So it's all boring groundwork with nothing much to share. Nice little break :)

Place Your Bets Now Please

I was looking at the betting odds for the Middlesbrough constituency. The following comes via oddschecker.com which gives an overview of all the odds offered by the various betting outlets, highlighting the most generous ones (which is what I'm using).

Labour 1/40
Conservative 16/1
Brexit Party 33/1
Antony High 66/1
Liberal Democrats 125/1
Greens 250/1

The 66/1 for Antony High at SkyBet seems a decent punt. The other two prices offered on him winning are both 33/1. The fact that so few are even offering a price suggests the bookies aren't entirely up to speed when it comes to individual constituencies.

I may as well look at the Hartlepool odds too while I'm here.

Labour 4/7
Conservative 7/2
Brexit Party 5/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1

I'm tempted to have a flutter now :)

Middlesbrough Social Media Data

So I have the seven day figures for the Facebook likes and Twitter followers for the Middlesbrough Central candidates.

Middlesbrough candidates. Facebook page likes, with net change over the last 7 days.

Antony High (Ind); 4,703 (+396)
Andy McDonald (Lab); 4,884 (+140)
Faye Clements (BXP); 98 (+10)
Ruth Betson (Con); 39 (+10)
Thomas Crawford (Lib Dem); 146 (+3)

Middlesbrough candidates, Twitter followers. Plus net change over the last seven days.

Andy McDonald (Lab): 34,393 (+350)
Ruth Betson (Con): 895 (+11)
Faye Clements (BXP): 677 (+10)
Antony High (Ind):  312 (+10)
Hugh Alberti (Green): 84 (+4)
Thomas Crawford (Lib Dem): 459 (-2)

The most noteworthy are the Facebook likes. Independent candidate Antony High is really smashing it. Nearly 400 new likes in the space of seven days is pretty impressive. I'm now expecting him to win this seat. It's just a question of how much the Labour vote collapses.

I also heard today that family members who live in town are planning to vote for him. Of course, this is just anecdotal evidence, but still it all adds to the picture.

Personally, as is apparent to anyone reading this blog, I was hopeful that the Brexit Party could do well here. I'm beginning to accept defeat though. That's just my opinion at the moment however, and it would be foolish to make predictions when we really are in uncharted territory.

From Aberavon to York Outer

I've finally finished looking through every constituency in the country. From Aberavon to York Outer. (York Outer is an interesting little constituency. It's like a little ring around York Central.)

Anyway I've now made a list of all the constituencies that looked a little interesting to me. I probably won't be checking it twice however as I'm quickly running out of time before the election. So I'm going to focus on the ones closest to me in the North East first. Brexopolis.