Beyond Risk

Another post about Beyond.

On Tuesday I upped my stake in Beyond Meat. On the Monday night I had an "Okay, I'm in" moment. The stars began to align and I just felt it ticked enough boxes. So I took my number of shares from 502 to 1,313.

According to my eToro account the stock now accounts for 6% of my portfolio, but 60% of my risk, lol.

Since then the stock has actually went up a decent amount. Though it's still under a dollar per share as I type.

I'm liking the look of things, so I'm starting to feel optimistic for the long term. The only worry really is that there are quite a lot of vegan and vegetarian products on the market. In UK supermarkets Beyond is one of many products on the shelves, and there are plenty of supermarket own brand type variations.

It takes me back to that very first post I made on this topic, where I was thinking about how to get ownership of the winning product(s) through buy-outs, etc.

Either way, I'm loaded up for the long term now. So it's sit back and watch I guess.

(The AI made this image. The prompt was: A food garden stock market chart with a green arrow going up, by Lucas Cranach the Elder and Jackson Pollock

It has a charm. I quite like it.)

It takes a little time..

I've made a graph.

(click to enlarge)

It illustrates how we need time to familiarise ourselves with something before we can begin to truly enjoy it. This applies to food, music, video games ..all sorts; and it was inspired by a conversation (slash argument) I had with my friend.

My friend plays music in a band. A folky-style band - nothing too heavy. And they have a gig coming up where they have to play three separate sets, of half an hour each. The venue isn't a pub or club, but a village fete type thing. So my friend and his little troupe aren't the main attraction, they're just one of a few local acts providing backing music as the visitors wander the various stalls and attractions.

Anyway, as they have ninety minutes to fill they're learning ninety minutes of material. A bit of a steep task - especially for such a little event. I said they should just play the same set three times. Maybe adding the odd song here or there if they want. However, my friend insisted that that would annoy people.

Obviously, I think he's wrong 😈

I actually think getting the chance to play the same set three times offers a huge opportunity they're foolish to miss out on.

First of all, the people there during the second or third set aren't necessarily going to be the same people that are there for the first. How long are these people spending there? So it's unlikely many people will hear all three sets anyhow.

Secondly, people won't even be paying attention to the music. They'll be too busy looking at the bric-a-brac and other curiosities. My friend will be lucky if he even gets noticed. (That sounds a bit harsh, lol. I don't mean it to sound that way.)

Thirdly - and this is where the opportunity arises - by having people hear a song more than once there's much more potential that it'll get stuck in their heads.

During the first set people won't consciously notice the background music, but during the second - when the songs are that little bit more familiar - suddenly they might. That's when the humming or singing along can occur. Then they notice. Then it's, "What's this?", "Who are these guys?"

You're essentially fast-tracking people through two or three gigs worth of exposure in a single day. The perfect advertisement opportunity. Three ads for the price of one.

My Friend Still Wasn't Buying It

He insisted that it doesn't work like that. More to point, he claims that he knows instantly whether he likes a song or not on the very first time of hearing it, and that other people have this instant awareness too. I think he's overestimating his powers of judgement and perception though, and underestimating how easily the brain gets tricked.

I've discussed this before on here. I think with new music it takes a few goes to get acclimatised. A good example is when you buy a new album.

You maybe buy a band's album because you like the single from it. When you start listening to the album the single itself is a joy to hear - you're tempted to just put it on repeat. However, the other album tracks are harder going. You're just not feeling them the same way. But then it happens. After a few listens some of the album tracks begin to stand out. (Assuming it's actually a decent album that is.) Then you start enjoying those tracks as much as the single. In fact, one of those other tracks could well be a future single that's yet to be released. It didn't sound like a single the very first time you put the album on, but now, all of a sudden, it does.

You're rewarded for that bit of effort and perseverance.

With the first single you didn't need to make that effort. As you'd already subconsciously heard it in the background on the radio, or in other places, multiple times before. Long before you started humming it and wanting to buy it.

So there's that little period of unfamiliarity, where it isn't enjoyable. Once you get past that the real enjoyment begins. Then, after a while, it gets overfamiliar - that's when boredom sets in. Hence the tail end of the graph.

People often complain that they're bored and that they want new music (or new food, or whatever else). But they're usually not willing to put the effort in to overcome the unfamiliarity of new things. They hear something for five seconds and say, "No, don't like it!" 😠

And the more new or unfamiliar something is the more this is the case.

For instance, say someone likes Radiohead. If you play them a band that sounds similar to Radiohead, they won't have that, "Don't Like It!" response. As it sounds familiar. However, as it's derivative and samey it'll get boring for them pretty quickly, and it'll never give them the high that Radiohead gave them.

In contrast, if you play that same person a band that sounds very different to Radiohead they will indeed have that, "Don't Like It!" first impression ..and they'll push it away. Like a baby pushing away a spoonful of unfamiliar food.

As they're unwilling to try it again they'll never get over that initial "unfamiliar" period. So they'll never get to experience the high that that music might have offered them.

It's similar with food. If someone offered me a pack of pickled onion Quavers that'd be a novel experience for me, and there'd be a slight apprehension that I might not like them. However, it wouldn't be that novel. I've had Quavers before. I've had other brands of crisps that are pickled onion flavoured. So it's not too difficult to imagine what pickled onion Quavers might be like, and it wouldn't take too long to judge their merits.

However, if someone offered me some weird food from another country, with some weird name, that I had little frame of reference for, that would be different. Then I'd need a bit more time to acclimatise. The first time trying it I'd be truly out of my depth. "Hmm. Okay, that's not too bad, I guess." It'd only be the second or third time that I'd truly settle down to comfort binge on that food (assuming I did end up liking it).

"Go on, give us another one of those whatever-they're-called. They're not too bad, actually."

Before you know it they're your new favourite food and you can't remember a time when you didn't like them.

Nevertheless, my friend really disagrees - and maybe you do too.

If I'm right his folk band are missing a trick at their gig though.

From the Back of Beyond

I'm here with another post about Beyond Meat. Since my last post on the topic I've been watching the share price bounce around. Though, saying that, the volatility seems to have disappeared somewhat. I've also bought a little more. So I'm now in a position where I can lose. Though only a few hundred dollars. Nothing criminal.

I've been doing a little bit of research too. Again, nothing major, just asking Grok questions and doing a few Google searches. Thanks to this I've learnt a few things:

• Sales for meat substitute products like Beyond Meat have dropped in the last few years. (I already knew this, but seeing some ballpark figures for 2024 helped get a better sense of things.)
• Quorn, which is big in the UK, has a presence, albeit small, in the US Market.
• The general mycoprotein production patent for Quorn ran out about fifteen years ago (the main ingredient in Quorn products is mycoprotein, derived from a fungus). Meaning any company can now make a similar product.

This is interesting to me as I normally buy what I like (stocks wise). As I mentioned on here before, unusually for me I was buying $BYND stock even though I'd never tried the product. Since then I have. In fact, I actually bought some more - and this time made cheeseburgers. Uplifting the vegan option into a vegetarian one.

However, I've also since bought Quorn pieces as well. My recent delving into this topic inspired me to revisit a dish I haven't eaten in about twenty years. As a child my mam used to make sweet and sour pork - it's kind of a family recipe. That is, the versions you'll find on the supermarket shelves aren't what I remember liking as a child. Anyway, after I first became vegetarian my mam kept making it for me, only with Quorn pieces instead of the pork. As it was the one meat-based meal that I really missed.

It's basically just rice, pineapple chunks, soy sauce, cornflour and the meat itself.

(I'm actually a big fan of pineapple in proper food. I'm one of these people that likes pineapple on pizzas. I think cooked fruit in general goes massively underused and under-explored - there's still this sense that it must be eaten either raw/cold or only as some kind of treat. A steak pie is a meal, but an apple pie is a dessert. "Why can't I have apple pie for tea?" I would always ask as a child, "I thought apples were healthy?"

That reminds me, with it being winter, I must buy a strudel. And I'll eat it as the main meal, not as a dessert.)

This brings me to the point. Part of the answer to that childhood question is the lack of protein. A meal needs some substance. Rice with pineapple chunks and some sauce isn't very filling. It would be a bit light, and not really worth the hassle of boiling all the pans. However, if you add some pork (or, in my case, Quorn), suddenly you have something a lot more satisfying. So I've been making a mess in the kitchen knocking up this meal once again. Nostalgia through tastebuds.

The Two Types of Substitute

It seems there are two types of meat substitute. One that seeks to recreate the direct experience and flavour of eating meat. The other that simply provides a substitute for the protein in dishes.

The Beyond Burger does the former. Quorn (at least the Quorn pieces that I buy) do the latter.

When I make Sweet and Sour Pork the flavour comes from the pineapple and the soy sauce, and the oil and the cornflour that I fry the Quorn pieces in. I don't really care if they taste identical to pork or not.

So, speaking on a personal level, as a consumer - and as a vegetarian - I could see Quorn being a more regular part of my shopping basket. Whereas the Beyond Burger would be less routine for me. I'd happily have a Beyond Burger on a trip to McDonald's, and I'd occasionally buy them as a, "We haven't had burgers in buns in a while," option. However, as I've mentioned before, I've never been a big fan of chomping down on a steak. That's not me. I'm not really an eating meat all the time type of person. I do need protein though. Especially in Indian/Oriental dishes where I can't just "have cheese with it." Plus, Quorn has the appeal of being a single ingredient product (pretty much).

Of course, ninety percent of the market is people who actually eat meat. Who like eating meat. Who like that taste. So, weirdly, they're more the potential market for the "direct experience" products. And that's a big market.

[The sales pitch to those people has been awful in recent years though. I'll add an addendum explaining why.]

So why don't Beyond Meat just whack out some mycoprotein pieces onto the market?

This returns us to the above bullet points. When I saw that the patent had expired my immediate thought was, "Why don't Beyond offer a similar product?" Capitalising on their global brand dominance.

Working through the question with Grok there are a few obvious hurdles. Mainly developing (and funding) the facilities/experience/knowledge to do it. As ever, nothing is so simple in real life. There's also the problem of potentially confusing the customer. Not having a clear brand signal. Plus, of course, I'm just one person. Not everyone wants what I want. Though given Quorn's success and longevity in the UK they must be doing something right.

Therefore, if I was investing in what I myself buy at the check out, I'd be a bit more inclined to invest in Quorn. (They're owned by the multinational Monde Nissan, that's listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange - a bit beyond my reach and knowledge.)

(The other famous long-established brand in the UK is Linda McCartney, whose parent is now the US food company Hain Celestial. As with Innocent, which is now owned by Coca-Cola, we're often ahead of the curve, then we get bought out.)

(AI knocked this one out, so strange

they still can't get the text right. Kinda

makes it more visual though.)

///////////////////////////

Addendum

Let's say you like ice cream, it's one of your favourite foods. Then I develop a product that's similar to ice cream.

However, instead of saying, "Hey, you like ice cream, you may also like this."

I say to you, "You're very naughty for eating ice cream. My product will completely replace it, and if I have my way you'll never eat another bowl of ice cream as long as you live."

How would you feel about my company and my product? I'm not only chastising you, I'm the guy that's taking away your favourite food, your bowl of ice cream, your childhood treat ..forever.

Not a great marketing pitch. You're probably going to hate me and my company. Fear it even. Fear I'm going to force you to change your life in some fundamental way that makes you worse off.

Well, that's been the marketing push to 90% of the market when it comes to meat substitute products. Especially during what we might call "The Woke Era."

So, lesson number one, the customer is king.

AI Art Gallery - Neo Northern Renaissance

It's snowing today. But let's not talk about today. Let's talk about yesterday. Yesterday I was playing around making AI art. I say 'making,' but really I was just typing prompts into Dezgo (my favoured image generator).

My prompts usually go along the lines of: something I'm interested in + historic artist I like

Anyway, yesterday I hit upon the, "Goth Woman painted by Jackson Pollock and Lucas Cranach the Elder ..with horoscope" aesthetic.

The mixing of two disparate artists with the medieval astrological vibe just worked for me.

Then it was just a case of generating dozens of random images to find the few that had that je ne sais quoi.

These were my picks. [Beware: not for everyone]

Welcome to my art gallery..

Then, finally, there's this one: that I'm dubbing the AI Mona Lisa. Yes, it's a touch explicit. That AI left the nipples really says something about how far the technology has come. Of course, lots of Lucas Cranach the Elder paintings feature bare-breasted women - so the inspiration is obvious. Still.. In fact, Dezgo has a tendency towards showing the female form nude, so you have to be careful. (There are a few images that I've kept that I daren't show publicly ..purely - and only! - for their artistic merits I should say.) Anyway, this one has a real allure. Like Blade Runner meets 'Allo 'Allo's "the fallen Madonna with ze big boobies."

When I'm rich enough to buy my chateau this will be hanging above the mantelpiece.

Bonfire Night Christmas Presents

I'm toying with another experiment. Today I might pay for Twitter.

Will it give me a boost in visibility, or will I just be paying for the privilege of remaining in peasant class? I'm also not sure whether to go basic (£35 for the year) or premium (£98). In essence it's like paying for advertising I guess.

I've been doing all my Christmas shopping, so maybe I should just go premium and write it off as a Christmas present to myself.

I might actually start wrapping presents today (!), which feels unfitting given it's Bonfire Night. However, I'll have a wander round the streets later on to watch the carnage and the fireworks, so I won't completely forgo the occasion.

I do like this time of year.

(I got Grok to make me an image;

I don't know why it's made me a girl)

[five minutes later..]

Okay, I've went premium. It was actually £84, not £98. Let's see what (if anything) happens.

(Dezgo popped me out this one in the meantime

- still girly, but a bit more fireworky)

Would They Fluoridate The Water In Eden

I was thinking about the future and I think everything comes back to the same question of what sort of world would you want to bring a child into. It concerns both your personal plans and the future of the wider human story.

This is why education has always been such a big thing for me. What is the point of this endless grind if even the children aren't spared the nine-til-five drudgery? From now until forever.

So this is the anchor.

What do we want for the world?

I've mentioned the folic acid in flour issue on here before. Since then I've been looking at the options for food without it. Flour is in so many products. Not just bread, but cakes, pastries, crackers, any product with breadcrumbs, the list goes on. For people that are advised to avoid folic acid for medical reasons it really is going to be a nightmare. It's a terribly irresponsible thing for a government to do. Flour is so ubiquitous in our diets. So any negative consequences are really going to be compounded.

Then I think about children. How would you raise a child in this chemical world? The very water is fluoridated. Things as simple as bread are massively fortified - by mandate.

Very little choice over schooling. Very little choice in regard diet or medical care. It's your child - you're bringing it into the world - but the state claims ownership over it. This is not a world for children, so these things need to change.

This is where my politics begins and ends.