Here we are, in an election campaign, and so far, I've posted nothing. Normally, in times like these, I'm posting daily, charting the action. So, what's up?
What's up is we're in praying for a miracle territory. Labour are heading for total victory, and our forces are fleeing in disarray - divided and betrayed. The Tories, either by incompetence or design, have surrendered parliament, and Reform have stepped onto the battlefield like Viking berserkers, swinging swords in all directions, sparing not even the most ardent of Brexiteer Tories.
Peter Hitchens, like a wise wandering druid, has been begging people to vote tactically, to block Labour, but no one is listening. (Actually, I'm sure some people are listening, but I'm being melodramatic - let me have some fun.) Whilst the online right cry for "zero seats," all bloodlust and mindless emotion.
Obviously, as you can see from my framing of things, I think Peter Hitchens is broadly correct. However, at the same time, Reform can, no doubt, win some seats -- and that would be a huge breath of optimism in an otherwise bleak, black fog. So, now the chaos has begun, I'm not quite sure what to state publicly.
With that in mind I'll just state what I'm doing personally.
Farms and Villages
Where I live there are two constituencies: Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, which is my constituency, is a super-safe Labour seat. So, consequently, my vote will probably make very little difference. Middlesbrough South is a little more interesting however. That seat flips back and forth. Currently, it's Conservative, and Simon Clarke is the MP. As far as Tories go, he's one of the better ones. So, if I lived there, I would definitely vote Conservative. In fact, on election night I'll probably be paying more attention to this seat than my own.
As for my own, I'll likely vote Reform. Also, as a side note, my current MP is Andy McDonald, which adds another minor tactical dynamic. I don't like Labour and have plenty of criticisms, but he's a bit more of a Corbynite than a Blairite, so potentially he could be a thorn in the side of Keir Starmer at some point over the coming years. And, he is at least sincere in his views, as much as I would disagree with them. So, if both seats stay the same, I would happily take that as a win right now. Making my vote even more of a free spin.
Re-Farm
I actually donated £50 to Reform a day or so before Nigel Farage announced he was running. When I did it I felt a little bit like an alchemist throwing mercury into the fire. With the writing seemingly on the wall regarding the election it just felt like it needed something. Obviously, £50 in the grand scheme of things isn't very much. However, I think all the donations people made that weekend did make a difference. It seemed like Reform were testing the public mood to see if the support was there, and it seems it was.
Ever since then I just think, "alchemy," whenever I tune into the election. There's no overall narrative, you just hope that somehow people get things right in their own constituency. That somehow we get a bit of magic that upsets the apple cart. I always believe that, if you give the British public options, they'll get it right more often than not. I'm not especially optimistic this time round - we could end up with a bit of a nightmare. We do at least have a bit of fizz in the cauldron though now.
This is partly why I'm not as mouthy and vocal as I normally am. All you can really do is just go back to your farm, village or constituency and cast your vote ..and trust people in other parts of the country to do the same. It's very difficult to tell other people what to do when the options they have locally may be completely different to your own, and when things may be changing in ways that make it difficult for outsiders to grasp the vibe in a particular area.
I know where I live. I might, over the next few weeks, take a deeper look at some of the other seats on Teesside. Beyond that I really don't know ..and I definitely don't trust polls enough to start painting by numbers.
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