Not So Bad

Okey-dokey, so I've just watched today's leadership debate on ITV. I feel somewhat more optimistic than I did yesterday. It wasn't entirely depressing.

I thought all three women were good. Liz Truss did well which was good to see. I still believe she's the most sensible choice given the circumstances. Her mannerisms are quite quirky. At times I was thinking she looked like she could be Mr Bean's girlfriend lol. Personally I like that though, it makes her seem a bit more genuine. Plus it's quite fitting for Britain to have Mr Bean's girlfriend in charge.

Kemi Badenoch seemed likeable again, though she came across more like a normal politician here, and she didn't sound especially right-leaning when the question about strikes and unions popped up.

And Penny Mordaunt actually came across as fairly nice and genuine too. So the women won it for me. The guys weren't my cup of tea. Though again, nothing from today gave me the feelings of horror I was experiencing yesterday. Perhaps we might get by as a country after all.

Now I'm going to read the Wikipedia page about Lord Liverpool. I had no real idea who he was when I referenced him a few posts ago, so that's a gap in my knowledge I really should fill.

Brexiteers - Outfoxed

I've just been firing off some tweets, largely into the void - I have very few followers. It completely slipped my mind that I was supposed to posting on here daily (daily on my days off at least). It would've probably made more sense to focus my energy here, into this void.

As we speak the word on the Twitter street is that Tory MPs are beginning to switch their vote from Liz Truss to Kemi Badenoch. The people that are excited by Kemi Badenoch are excited by this. Myself not so much ..and that's what I've been tweeting in response to.

Kemi Badenoch seems very nice and intelligent. I've tried to watch some of her speeches and interviews over the last few days or so and she always impresses. I missed yesterday's debates as I was working, so I only caught a few soundbites from all that. I get the feeling she didn't make an impact in that arena - her fans were quiet on Twitter last night. Still however, she's the hope for people that don't want 'more of the same'. Though I suspect Rishi, Mordaunt and Tugendhat will all bring something quite different to what Boris brought.

My instinct with Badenoch is one of scepticism. Again, I really can't criticise her if I'm to judge her on what I've seen of her personally. It's more the political intrigue aspect that arrests me. Her entry into the race is quite convenient.

• It took the shine and limelight away from more familiar Brexiteer outsiders, like Suella Braverman. She pretty much stole her thunder.
• Her freshness and lack of experience makes Sunak and Mordaunt appear older and more experienced than they are.
• She splits the right vote. First with Braverman, and now with Truss.

Plus, if she does somehow win we have no idea who her team would be. She was supported by Michael Gove - which isn't a great omen. On top of this her husband is apparently a pro-remain banker who works for Deutsche Bank (in fact she herself also started out in banking). So though she herself appears to be a Brexiteer it's all a bit opaque. Again, we know very little about this person. To me it's crazy to put someone so unknown into Number 10, but people like shiny new things.

As with the Boris ousting it's hard to not see this as Brexiteers being thoroughly outfoxed.

Also finally I've been thinking about when the next General Election will be. I'm never entirely sure about the dates and rules for when elections happen, but my feeling is that we won't be having one too soon. Personally I think people are focusing far too much on which candidate is best placed to win the next GE for the Conservatives. The more immediate concern is the here and now, as power is power, and an election could be a good while off.

If Truss wins then given her polling it'd be wise to wait, and all the other candidates that helped to oust Boris will fear the public too much to call one eagerly. They'll probably want to make the most of the power they've just grabbed. So thwarting that grab should be the overriding focus.

[Caveat: As I've stated numerous times on this blog over the years. All the above is simply my own assessment and opinion. I could well be wrong, either partly or wholly. So perhaps my sense of doom and suspicion is misplaced and we'll be sitting pretty with Badenoch or one of the other anti-Boris candidates firmly at the helm of a successful post-Brexit Britain. Hopefully this is the case.]

Political Princes

Back again.

I've been following the Conservative leadership race and have partly been thinking about it in terms of age.

Here's a list of the final eight candidates and their ages:

Jeremy Hunt (55)

Nadhim Zahawi (55)

Penny Mordaunt (49)

Tom Tugendhat (49)

Liz Truss (46)

Kemi Badenoch (42)

Suella Braverman (42)

Rishi Sunak (42)

[Boris (58)]

..and today the two eldest have just been knocked out. So the remaining six are all under fifty.

Younger People Are More Malleable

Ever since Rishi Sunak was raised up, quite out-of-the-blue, to the position of chancellor an instinctive dread has gripped my stomach. I instantly thought, "Oh no, we're getting a Macron". A young, slick banker to set the country straight.

So sitting here with him as one of the favourites to win doesn't surprise me. I've been expecting it.

Now I'm not saying a 40-odd year old should never be chancellor, or that a 42 year old should never become PM, but it's definitely something that you should try to avoid. Younger people are generally less worldly and more pliant. As we grow older we gain experience, and we gather gravitas, and we learn how to say "No" to people. We become less willing to bend with the wind.

There are countless examples of this sort of thing from history. The sturdy old king, unwilling to bend to the wishes of his advisors. Ousted and replaced by his younger and more easily flattered son. Who, enamoured with the fashions of the day, pursues the policies of his advisors - as long as they provide an easy path for him and flatter his ego enough.

In the modern world we have a bevy of these young princes: Trudeau, Jacinda Ardern (who still, even now, is just forty-one), Macron. Obama kinda fitted the mould too.

Tony Blair was arguably the first prototype - he was aged forty-three, and according to Wikipedia was the youngest person to become PM in Britain since Lord Liverpool in 1812.

I say according to Wiki because I'm literally getting these ages straight from there. I don't want to create the false pretence that I'm recalling all this straight from the top of my head. I have no idea who Lord Liverpool is, what he did, or if he was any good. I do know what I've witnessed with my own eyes however, and since Blair we've had these cookie-cutter political princes thrust upon us time and again. Always, strangely enough, pushing the same progressive globalist politics.

And if we ever choose not to vote for them it's called populism.

Sun and Ice

So much for this daily thing. It's the second day and I have nothing to write. Plus I'm heading out into the blistering sun in half an hour or so, so if I don't post something now I may not have a chance to post anything later.

Writing is a habit though, so I guess something is better than nothing.

I may as well mention the book I started reading yesterday:

Captain Scott by Ranulph Fiennes

It's superb so far. I really love these adventures in Antarctica. The icy coolness of it also helps take the edge off this heat. I'll hopefully get to read a few more chapters on the bus when I head out today.

The Self-Awareness Has Gone

Think I might start posting daily again ( ..well, daily the days I'm not at work anyway). We'll see how it goes. I'm in quite a bad mood about Boris being forced to resign this week. I won't go over the ins and outs, but the spectre of another Tory leadership race made me revisit some of the posts I wrote back in 2019. Back then I was posting daily, and it was quite a useful endeavour. It's also provided quite a handy reference to look back on. To see where my thoughts were then and where they are now. So it might be good to begin again.

One of the disappointing things about Boris leaving for me is that I think he's actually much more intelligent than most of the other people in politics. I read a book about John Lennon a few months back and there was a quote from the singer Billy Joel, who said he'd been inspired when younger by seeing Lennon on the Ed Sullivan show - "He's standing there, looking around him as if to say, "Is all this corny or what?"

It's a self-awareness thing. Most people who want to be famous and on TV take these things very seriously - as they take themselves very seriously, but though willingly part of it Lennon was always aware how ridiculous it all was. Meaning that though he took part in the showbiz-ness he viewed it as somewhat beneath him at the same time.

I think it's similar with Boris. People mock the "clownish-ness" of his public persona, but the reality is he can't help but be aware of how ridiculous it all is, meaning he can't take the performative aspect of it seriously. Hence the smirk that's nearly always on his face. The other politicians take themselves seriously and lack the self-awareness to see how pompous they are. Whereas Boris is too smart. He knows it's bullshit and sees that it's beneath him to put his soul fully into it. That's not to say he doesn't take the actual politics seriously though.

I read Boris's book about Churchill during the corona panic. It was great, and it was fascinating reading a book about a former leader, by someone who was now a leader during a difficult period. There's a self-awareness and an awareness of history with him. He's a very intelligent guy.

It's a shame what's happened this week. I could rant on about all the back-stabbing that's went on, but it's probably not helpful. I need to calm down and be a bit more forgiving going forward. It's not the end of the world, it's just a bit of summer madness. It is a bit of a mess though. The country was united. Not anymore.

Bitcoin: Currencies Are Backed By Cultures

I've been watching the recent bitcoin crash, as well as the surrounding online furore, and it's made me think about what currencies are backed by a little more. Obviously bitcoin isn't backed by anything in particular - I see more and more people pointing this out online. The reply to this from pro-bitcoin people then being something along the lines of:

"Well, the dollar/pound/euro [insert fiat currency] isn't backed by anything either."

However, though this is a good point to make, it isn't really true in quite the same way. Fiat currencies, although not backed by a particular commodity, are backed by something much more powerful: an entire culture.

Particularly the state force manifested by that culture.

So, for instance, here in the UK we use pounds sterling. This is backed by a state that controls a large area of land. That has an army, and tanks, and law, and the power to enforce that law, and to collect taxes, and to jail people who don't pay their taxes; and so forth.

This power to impose a currency and demand taxation in that currency can be tyrannical, or it can be democratic, or something in between - i.e. it manifests however the politics of that country or state manifests.

Still, on top of this state power the currency is also backed by the wider culture that chooses (or is forced) to use it. How trustworthy that culture is. How innovative it is. How strong that country or culture is on the world stage. Its historical track record and reputation. All these things back a currency.

The Culture of Bitcoin

This then returns us to bitcoin. The question being: what culture backs bitcoin?

hope / HODL

Bitcoin isn't backed by a state, with state force. So it definitely isn't backed like the dollar or the pound is. Yet still, you don't necessarily need state force to have at least some cultural backing.

For example, no state is forcing an individual to value gold. The value of gold is largely derived from the simple fact that we live in a wider culture where gold is valued. In every major culture of the world the idea that gold is valuable is ingrained in the collective consciousness. A view that has been ingrained and embedded in our worldview over centuries and millennia.

Perhaps if we found an undisturbed tribe somewhere they might not care for it. They may deem it just a shiny rock, but for us the value of gold pervades our culture and history.

[I discussed the psychology of gold (and bitcoin) here: Metals, Markets, and Digital Jewellery ]

The question then for bitcoin is how many people believe in bitcoin like people believe in gold - and how ingrained is that belief. You can be fairly sure people will still value gold in 20 or 30 years time, the concept being so culturally pervasive, but bitcoin is relatively new. Will it be a fad? Or will the people who swear by bitcoin now still be as passionate and invested in it in a few decades time.

I personally have no idea what the answer is to this question. So remain open to either possibility.

Cultures without state force..

To flesh out this issue of "culture" further it might be worth considering other strong cultures that don't have a particular state. You could take the Amish as an example. Though the Amish don't have their own state, they still carry a fair degree of weight. So, hypothetically, if they were to issue some kind of token or currency you could perhaps have a high level of confidence in it.

• They have a trustworthy culture.
• They have a strongly ingrained set of cultural values: so you can have confidence that they'll still hold their current values in 20, 30 or 40 years time.
• There are quite a lot of them, i.e. they have strength in numbers - meaning if the wider state (in this case the U.S. government) did try to ban or suppress their Amish currency it would be quite difficult.

A similar, though more warlike example of a strong culture would maybe be the Taliban. Again - they have strength in numbers, and a strong set of cultural values that are heavily ingrained - and that they're prepared to defend. Hence why entire states and their militaries have failed to quash them.

So groups of people with a strong set of shared cultural values can wield a lot of influence. Even though it's not quite at the same level as state power, they can kind of exist (or compete) independently of states.

So what culture surrounds bitcoin?

At present it seems to be quite a mix. Ranging from genuine believers in the concept, to get-rich-quick types, to outright grifters. There are also some big companies and players involved (perhaps even state actors). It's quite broad. The confusion enhanced by the fact that many of the true believers also want to get rich quick too.

If all these people simply fizzle away when the going gets tough and there's no more money to be made then obviously that would bode badly for bitcoin. Alternately, if there is indeed a hardcore of people that genuinely believe in the concept - and to an extent that this belief will persist throughout their entire lives, then that may be different.

If there's a culture of people - where belief in bitcoin is tied up with other beliefs, such as belief in liberty, or religion, or gun-ownership. Or whatever the set of values may be. Then that would be something that could help support an alternate currency or store of value.

Other cultural currencies..

Of course, you could take this understanding that currencies are backed by culture and apply it to other crypto-coins or currency concepts. A few days ago I tweeted that holding currency is like holding shares in a totemic flag, representing a particular culture or worldview.

Perhaps you could deliberately create a currency that is tied to a set of values in some way. I mentioned a few posts back about potentially buying shares in Stonehenge. There you'd be investing in, but also sponsoring, a particular cultural artefact. An artefact that symbolically represents something more than the material artefact itself.

A totem pole. You're buying shares in the flag (and the values) you're rallying around.

Again though, we already have something not a million miles away from this with national currencies. I use pounds sterling partly because I'm forced to by my government, but also partly out of choice. British people aren't happy with the state of inflation at the moment (something of an understatement), but at the same time we're not exactly on the verge of overthrowing our government and demanding something new. So we consent to it to some degree.

We also choose how much we invest in it to some extent too. For example, if I have money in my bank account I can choose to keep it all there in British pounds, or I can take some of it out and invest it elsewhere. In gold, or other assets and currencies. So again, even just as individuals we all have these small ways of exercising power in the real world.

In fact, I have shares in U.S. dollars in American companies. As a Brit no one has forced me to do this. I've chosen to do it - partly because I believe in the values of America.

In contrast I haven't chosen to buy shares in Chinese companies because investing in a non-democratic country doesn't appeal to me. That wouldn't reflect my values. As much as I like and admire Chinese people.

So our economic choices are often deeply entwinned with our beliefs. These individual choices, multiplied by the numerous people making them, can aggregate into something quite potent.

.. as I'm still not sure what the core beliefs and values of the bitcoin community are I'll remain on the sidelines in this arena too.

What is Teesside?

Middlesbrough has once again failed in its efforts to acquire "city" status. As a city-zen of Middlesbrough I'm actually quite pleased about this. To me Middlesbrough just doesn't feel like a city, it feels like a town. I can see why people want city status, it brings an element of prestige, but it's little use if it isn't a genuine reflection of reality in my opinion.

Teesside as a whole could be considered something akin to a city. It's certainly big enough. However, even here the label wouldn't be quite right. Teesside is kinda weird. It's its own thing.

(Teesside, courtesy of Google Maps)

All the places that make up Teesside - Middlesbrough, Stockton, Redcar, Billingham and so forth - all pretty much just blend into each other. There are no real dividing lines in actuality. It's one huge urban (and industrial) sprawl. Still though, each is a unique place in its own right, with its own centre of gravity.

I guess you could describe Teesside as a multi-polar cityscape in a sense.

The difficulty in packaging all these separate but conjoined places under one label is reflected in the amount of different names that have been used over the years.

Teesside, Tees Valley, Cleveland, North Yorkshire - these are all things I could put between Middlesbrough and my postcode when writing my address. (I generally go with North Yorkshire, but only because I feel it conveys a bit more beauty.)

The fact that Teesside is on the boundary between Yorkshire and Durham only adds to the difficultly in pinning things down. Historically the River Tees was the boundary between these two places. Now Teesside lies sprawled across this boundary. A blob in its own right.

We have some of the most beautiful countryside in all of England right on our doorstep, it's a huge blessing, yet by focusing on Teesside alone we don't advertise this. When people think "Teesside", or "Tees Valley" even, they think of an industrialised landscape. They don't think of the green fields and forests out on the horizon. So we lose something by calving ourselves off from these two historic counties. Still though, these settlements that have blossomed along the river are too big to not have their own label; and it's only natural that the label would refer to the river.

It's not a city, or a town, or a county. It's Teesside.

It's the corridor of concrete, chemical works and artificial lighting that follows the river out to Redcar. The grim, but futuristic landscape that helped give Ridley Scott the inspiration for the movie Blade Runner.

(click to enlarge)

But even this is changing somewhat as we move into the 21st century. So who knows what the final imprint will be.

The difficultly in finding a vision that fits is compounded by the fact that Middlesbrough, at the centre of it all, is a young town by English standards. Only really coming into being during the 19th century - when industrialisation kicked into gear and the "iron rush" began in the very same hills and valleys.

In some ways Middlesbrough has more in common with the towns that sprung up in America during this period than it does with English ones. Its motto - Erimus - meaning "We Shall Be" reflecting this.

In fact, this is partly why I've come to view it as counterproductive to try to force labels upon the area. It's still a work in progress. It'll be what it'll be ..and when the time comes the language to describe things will naturally come too.