Sunday, November 3, 2019

Winter is Coming Again

Well, Farage is still stating that he'll stand candidates in 600 constituencies. Obviously this isn't ideal, so hopefully he pulls back.

Taking things at face value though and assuming everyone has true intentions it's also worth pointing out that the Conservatives are likewise being somewhat idealistic. Standing candidates in all seats and offering the Brexit Party no free run anywhere. Not even in a few seats where Tories can never win.

About an hour or so ago I made this point to someone on Twitter. However, I've also just been out walking and I was thinking further about it all.

Let's say you have a Labour stronghold seat where most people will simply never vote Tory. Like my constituency here in Middlesbrough. In fact, it's perhaps worth putting this into perspective in simple terms for anyone reading that isn't from the working class north.

I could probably persuade some of my friends and family members to vote Brexit Party. It would be quite an easy discussion to have, and with the current anger people have towards Labour they'd certainly at least be open to the prospect. However, alternately, not only would I struggle to convince anyone to vote Conservative, it would be difficult to even have the conversation. As there's such an ingrained anti-Tory attitude that I'd be instantly disowned by many people. If you even raise the prospect that you yourself might be voting that way you're instantly confronted with cries of "coal miners" and "poll tax". It's almost a cultural taboo, as strange as that sounds.

The Brexit Party simply don't have that same baggage.

Anyway, let's say you have a seat contested between Labour and BXP, but a Conservative candidate is also standing. How will this affect things. They'll get their small rump Conservative vote, no doubt in the low thousands - people who have simply voted Conservative all their life. This could split the Brexit vote and lead to Labour getting past the post with a relatively small percentage vote share.

However, we're all working on the assumption here that these Tory voters will move to a pro-Brexit option if their option to vote Conservative is taken away. However, that may not necessarily be the case. They might not care one jot about Brexit. They may simply move over to Labour as they're the next major party on the ballot paper. They might think the Brexit Party are too extreme. Or have other reasons for not voting that way. So perhaps a Conservative candidate could benefit a BXP one to some degree.

It's all much more complicated when you actually try to imagine the multitude of people going out to vote and put an X in their box for their own personal reasons and feelings.

This complexity makes me wonder if I should just keep my mouth shut and let nature take its course. Perhaps trying to second guess things and play a tactical game will accidentally make things much worse. Just have faith.

Though saying all that it's very hard to imagine that having multiple pro-Brexit candidates on the ballot won't do big, big damage to the Brexit cause.

Game of Brexit

On a lighter note I've been doing some daft photoshopping. So much of Brexit politics reminds me of Game of Thrones for some reason. The current situation has echoes of seasons 7 & 8. That good feeling you got when you saw all the "good guys" finally team up to take on the White Walkers.

Jon Snow, Jaime Lannister, The Hound, The Red Woman, Tormund - all coming together for the greater good.

You're kind of hoping for that now as we head into icy December. Dominic Cummings, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson all teaming up for one final battle to deliver Brexit.

Is it gonna happen though?

(Ann Widdecombe and Nigel Farage
arrive in Winterfell)

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