Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Badenoch Gone, My Instincts All Wrong

Okay, so Badenoch is out now. Dashing my instinctive fear from yesterday that it would be a Sunak v Badenoch final. This is a bit of good news for me, though many will be disappointed. We get to avoid the prospect of a complete unknown quantity taking charge of the country, and it isn't all bad for her followers. She's very young, and there's plenty of time ahead of her, and plenty of time for the public to learn more about her.

Also, and crossing the blog streams for a moment, I noticed a huge uptick in the Polymetal share price earlier. Apparently there are plans afoot to off-load their Russian assets. Meaning shareholders (of which I'm one) will end up owning shares in a wholly Kazakhstani operation. I was intermittently posting blog updates about my wanderings in share-land. I'm not sure it's too useful blending share commentary with political commentary in the one blog post, but I really have so little focus regarding what I want to say on here at the moment (I'll blame the heat 🌞🌞) so I might as well just roll with it.

I'm actually using shares a vehicle, or lens, to watch the Ukraine conflict through, so in a way things all intersect. As well as the Russian stocks I own I also have some Ferrexpo - which is an iron ore producer that operates in Ukraine. So it's interesting to watch what happens (if anything) as the war continues and the Russians make gains. The Ferrexpo operations are all fairly safe and comfortable in the Ukraine controlled part of the map (I think), so I don't think there's much chance that they'll end up lost behind the "sanctions curtain" like some of my Russian shares.

Obviously, the great hope is peace, but with Polymetal fracturing along this financial dividing line between the West and Russia that doesn't look likely. It seems, or least feels, like the divide is here to stay and everyone's just learning to accept and adapt to it. My instincts about Badenoch yesterday were wrong though, so hopefully my instincts here are wrong too.

Anyhow, it's very, very hot here in the UK, so I'll leave it there. Hopefully when it cools down a bit I'll be able to think a bit clearer.

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