Way Out West

So, during the run up to the 2017 general election there was a terror event on the last day voters could register, the Manchester Arena event. This election there was one three days later.

Anyways, where were we.

I'm still, yes still, working my way through all the constituencies (I forgot about W - lots of places beginning with "west"). Nearly there though. I've been making a little list of interesting constituencies (to my eyes at least), but given my slow pace I'm not sure I'll be able to further investigate them all before December the 12th. There are lots of interesting seats though. All the seats where politicians from the last parliament are standing down will be interesting. Being a well known incumbent really does make a difference I think. Often, for whatever reason, a personality may or may not click with the area they're standing in. There's definitely a knack to having a good rapport with people.

Personally I'd be quite worried about this election whatever party I was rooting for. I think it's very hard to predict what will happen. 3.8 million newly registered voters. Many of the already registered perhaps feeling a bit disenfranchised and not turning out. Votes getting split on either side.

It could be an interesting night.

Twitter and Facebook likes and followers for the Hartlepool candidates

Well, I have the figures for Twitter followers and Facebook likes for Hartlepool, as promised.

Twitter followers, plus net gain over seven days for the Hartlepool candidates.

Richard Tice (Brexit); 61,269 (+469)
Mike Hill (Labour); 2,397 (+108)
Kevin Cranney (SLP); 583 (+4)
Andy Hagon (LD); 86 (+3)
Joe Bousfield (Ind); 3 (+1)
Stefan Houghton (Con); 19 (+0)

(The Richard Tice gain figure is something of an approximation as the figure I had for last week was 60.8k. What with Twitter rounding the figures off and me stupidly using my phone to get the numbers. The Conservative number is for the Hartlepool Conservatives account. I couldn't find a specific candidate one. Likewise the Kevin Cranney number is for the Hartlepool Socialist Labour Party account.)

Facebook likes for the Hartlepool candidates now, again plus the net change over seven days.

Stefan Houghton (Con); 30 (+24)
Joe Bousfield (Ind); 336 (+19)
Kevin Cranney (SLP); 81 (+14)
Mike Hill (Lab); 1,356 (+10)
Richard Tice (BXP); 35,942 (+3)
Andy Hagon (LD); 13 (+0)

(The 13 for Andy Hagon is for the Hartlepool Liberal Democrats page.)

The lack of Facebook likes for Richard Tice was surprising. I wonder if this maybe has more to do with the national picture than the local one. It does highlight how well Faye Clememts has been doing on Facebook though. (+15) over the week, in very difficult circumstances.

Local Politics Are Trumping National Issues

I'm continuing to follow the politics locally in my own constituency. I mentioned when I started posting about the local scene that I was wary because it tends to be a bit petty. Today we've had a good case in point. Firstly with arguments over banners.

Independent candidate's banners reported to police for breaking election rules

Then secondly with debates about whether the independent candidate Antony High was actually born in Middlesbrough or not lol. It was funny enough when the Brexit Party candidate Faye Clements was getting accused of being an outsider for being from the incredibly far and distant Thirsk. This is even more comedic. They might as well just decide the election by having a parmo eating contest.

As for who'll win, the local media, and now quite interestingly some of the mainstream media, are starting to paint Middlesbrough central as a straight one-on-one battle between Antony High and Labour's Andy McDonald. The Brexit Party are being completely squeezed out of the picture.

Obviously I'm pro-Brexit and pro-Brexit Party. So I'm still holding on to hopes that things may change in the last few weeks.

Nationalpol.

As for national politics I'm beginning to worry about a Corbyn bounce. The polls are looking bad for Labour and he's getting slated in the media, but my impressions from social media are that his support is very well mobilised. A lot of people just don't like the Tories. Likewise a lot of people have really felt the pinch of austerity and long for a warmer and more sympathetic government. As for the polls they've been very wrong many times before. So much so I'm sick of running through the list.

I hope my impressions are wrong, but I can't help but feel that the debates are being framed in a way that very much suits Labour. The Conservatives are too much on the back foot. They should just be relentlessly attacking Labour on Brexit and immigration, their two real weak spots, but they're terrified of the immigration issue and can't bring themselves to raise and attack it. This is why I feel the lack of an alliance with the Brexit Party is a missed trick. They could've just let the Brexit Party do the dirty work. Now they're having to marginalise Farage instead of letting him ram the issue home.

I caught a bit of Question Time again when I got home today. Again it just seemed to be debates about "racist" language and identity politics. This is great territory for Labour as even if they get criticism themselves it gives them ample opportunity to attack back. It brings every party down to the same level, and it's an issue people on the left love talking about, but that people on the right are more uncomfortable with. So it's just like a noise that everything else gets lost in, with the balance slightly favouring the left.

Plus, though there may be individual incidents of actual racism at times, the fact is our mainstream politicians (on all sides) are simply not racists in any real sense of the word. This is not a racist country. It's actually a pretty great and remarkably tolerant country. Even when politics is heated. So it doesn't really ring true with the public at large when these accusations are made, and again the mud is more likely to stick when thrown at people on the right. As people on the left genuinely believe that "Tories/Farage/Trump/etc are racists", whereas people on the right see people on the left not as racists, but as idiots.

The charges of anti-Semitism levelled at Corbyn are very serious and damaging, but as I've noted on this blog before, his actions (or in-actions) don't stem from a racist place. He's just not a racist guy. They stem from a leftist place. He's pro-Palestine and anti-Israel for the same reasons that he's pro-IRA and anti-British ..because he's very far to the left, and people on the left view the world in a way that leads them to side with whoever is the perceived underdog.

His previous support for terrorist groups is a big concern, but it requires an accurate diagnosis. Framing it as a racial issue allows it to be lost in the identity politics fog. The Tories call Corbyn an anti-Semite, he calls them Islamophobic, and we end up arguing about language and past Facebook posts all day long. Really we should be having a practical debate about the national security implications of having someone in charge who constantly acts on leftist ideology instead of rationale.

I watched the now infamous Andrew Neil interview of Corbyn, and yes Corbyn did get pulverised on many points. However, the interview began with accusations of anti-Semitism, but then finished with questions essentially criticising Corbyn for not being prepared to use the nuclear deterrent or to give the order to extra-legally kill terrorists.

You can't paint someone as being so horrible that they're potentially ushering in Nazism, yet at the same time so nice and moral that they'd never kill or nuke anyone. Those two things together simply make no sense. So I was watching thinking; normal people, if they even watch this, will be left with the impression that he's a decent, principled guy, getting a bit of unfair treatment. Which is essentially true. Again, Jeremy Corbyn simply is not a racist, and to be fair to him he has campaigned his entire life to counter it.

The problem with Corbyn is his policies, ideologies and lack of sound judgement. If you attack him on these things it will be effective and will ring true with people.

I've went on a bit longer than I planned :) ..what a mix, mundane local politics and then serious tracts about racism and foreign policy xD

Over One Million People Register To Vote In The Last Few Days

So the deadline for voter registration was yesterday.

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-breakdown

As you can see from the graph 660k people registered to vote on the final day alone. The previous day saw 366k register. Making it over a million over the last two days.

It's a huge number of people. Especially when you consider that the population of the country is about 67 million, some of whom being too young to vote anyway.

Obviously many people will not bother voting this time out (there's some speculation that the voter turn out will be low). However, it stands to reason if you've made the effort to register in the last few weeks then it's highly likely that you're going to use that vote. So all things considered these newly registered voters will have a huge impact on the outcome.

The question then is; how will they vote?

Last time out in 2017 the freshly registered, predominantly younger voters, seemed to benefit Corbyn. So you would think this time it will be similar. Of the 660k that registered yesterday over 450k were under the age of 35.

Finally, if my maths is correct, 3.8 million people registered in total from the 29th of October, when the election was announced, to the 26th of November, deadline day. HUGE number.

Twitter and Facebook continued

This is the likes and followers for my constituency candidates (Middlesbrough Central). At least as they were on Sunday evening.

Twitter followers, with net change over 7 days in brackets.

Andy McDonald (Lab): 34,043 (+4k)
Ruth Betson (Con): 884 (+30)
Faye Clements (BXP): 667 (+11)
Antony High (Ind):  302 (+10)
Hugh Alberti (Green): 80 (+6)
Thomas Crawford (Lib Dem): 461 (+4)

Facebook page likes, with net change over 7 days in brackets.

Andy McDonald (Lab); 4,744 (+201)
Antony High (Ind); 4,307 (+197)
Faye Clements (BXP); 88 (+15)
Ruth Betson (Con); 139 (+1)
Thomas Crawford (Lib Dem); 143 (+2)

(I couldn't find a Facebook page for the Green Party candidate).

Looking at the Facebook page likes you can see that both Antony High and Andy McDonald have a strong showing. Obviously Andy McDonald is quite an established figure so his like count will have built up over a fairly long period of time. The Antony High count is more recent, and in large part owes itself to the large following the Middlesbrough mayor has built up on Facebook.

Though looking at the net change over the 7 days the difference between them and the other candidates isn't quite as stark.

Also I should note that the Conservative candidate Ruth Betson has a new Facebook account specifically for her Middlesbrough campaign which I wasn't aware of when I first started. That account went up by about 15 or so likes in the 4/5 days after I found it. So her numbers are a little skewed. I'll be using her Middlesbrough Facebook page going forward.

Most notable from the Twitter figures is that Andy McDonald has jumped up about 4k in the 7 days. A huge leap. I'm guessing this is largely due to his very public spat with Dominic Raab. So perhaps a lot of Labour supporters have started following him from across the country.

I'm also currently looking at the Hartlepool constituency. I'll post them later in the week as I started recording those last Friday. So I'll have a 7 day net figure this coming Friday.

I think it's interesting looking at things this way as you can get a sense of momentum as the weeks go by.

Likes and Followers

I'm nearly there. Amazing how many constituencies there are beginning with 'south' or 'north'. Now I'm past that part of the alphabet I should be in the home straight. Finally.

I've also been looking at Facebook page likes and Twitter followers re political candidates.

I'm looking at the overall likes/followers, but also the net change in likes/followers over a 7 day period. I think this gives a good indication of a candidate's momentum. As the overall likes can be skewed for various reasons. Such as how long they've had a public profile, etc.

Hopefully I'll be posting more about this over the coming days.

Data diving ..still

Blog, blog, blog. I'm still trawling through all the constituencies. Nearly finished now. It does mean my posts are especially boring though at the moment.

I'm also still keeping an eye on voter registration levels. There was a big spike on Friday of 300,000. I think the deadline is the 26th of November. So just two more days left.

(click to enlarge - or better still

click the link below)

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-breakdown

Acceleration.

Acceleration is the word today. I get a sense that this election has finally kicked into gear. I might have said that before though. It's really interesting watching it all unfold either way. I'm still trying to work my way through all the constituencies however, so I'm falling behind a bit. May plough on some more tonight.

I did have a real good look at the Hartlepool constituency though. That really is Labour versus Brexit Party. No doubt about it. I'm now expecting Richard Tice to win that seat.

I really need to have a good look at some more seats in the region. Alphabetically they tend to be more towards the bottom end of the list, so I haven't quite reached many yet. Better crack on!

White Pill Christmas

I was a bit hard on the Brexit Party yesterday. It was a black pill day. Today it's quite different. I've watched Nigel Farage's manifesto launch and it was pretty impressive. Again, he's a great speaker and they do seem to be offering policies that are tangible and relevant.

I had a quick look through the manifesto, or "contract with the people" as they're calling it, to see if there was any reference to tax breaks for private healthcare. There seems to be nothing in there - tick

Likewise on the topic of a written constitution Farage stated in his speech that it was something that would be difficult and take years. So that acknowledgement was a reassurance, suggesting that it's more an aim than anything taking on a more solid form. So that's another tick. Or semi-tick at least.

My other main gripe was the plan for proportional representation. However, although I'm not in favour there is an argument for it and it will be popular with many people. So I can't really complain too much.

Personally I can't see why people can't wrap the PR up with the House of Lords reform. Have that chamber PR and leave the House of Commons alone. I'm not entirely sure what I would do about the House of Lords, but I've been thinking and I can see two potential issues straight off. Firstly having elections for two chambers would be confusing and annoying for many people. People are a bit jaded with all the elections as it stands. Secondly it would be difficult for the public to differentiate between the two houses. There's the potential for sensory overload.

So I was thinking the House of Lords would need to be much smaller. Asking the public to familiarise themselves with another 500 or so politicians would be a stretch. It's hard enough remembering the main lot. So I'd strip it back to 100 or so. Then the elections I would have every ten years maybe. So you'd have democratic accountability, but you'd still have the grandee sense of things.

There's no doubt unforeseen problems with this plan though. It's very easy to criticise the current system but replacing it with something better is very, very difficult.

That was a bit of a sidetrack wasn't it. Anyway, the long and short of it is, I'm back on the Brexit Party bus.

Tax Breaks For Black Pills

Well, bit of a black pill yesterday. We had the story that the Brexit Party will be offering tax breaks to wealthy people who use private health care. The private healthcare issue did pop up in the Farage Question Time special from the other night, though I don't recall him specifically mentioning tax breaks. Perhaps I missed it. Either way, it's a terrible policy. Both optically, and in practice.

You're attacking Labour seats in the north. This isn't going to woo those people. In fact, it'll probably scare many off. When I first saw the headline my initial thought was "Wow, are they actually deliberately trying to throw this election??".

As for the actual practicality of the policy there are so many potential issues. A tax break is essentially a subsidy. So you'll have a situation where the government is essentially subsidising private healthcare. The complete opposite of the entire point of private provision. On top of this it's yet more paperwork and policing for the government. All the effort that'll go into deciding what does and doesn't qualify for the tax break. The action needed to make sure it isn't abused, etc.

Of course, we already have lots of wealthy and not so wealthy people using private healthcare. So after such a policy was introduced they'd all suddenly be eligible for the tax break presumably. It's totally mad.

You'll probably end up with millionaires getting tax breaks because their wives have had boob jobs.

An extreme example maybe xD, but again what would count? Do you count mental health treatment too? "She needed the boob job, she had low self-esteem!"

Localpol.

Anyway, let's move on to local politics, which kind of ties in.

The policies of the Brexit Party, including the one above (assuming it becomes official policy), are putting me off a bit. I've mentioned on here before that I'm against proportional representation. The Brexit Party also have a policy to bring in a written constitution. Which I'm not too keen on. Personally I like our organic, evolving constitution. Plus who would even write such a new constitution? What would be in it? And why would you vote for a constitution you haven't even seen yet?

Can you imagine our current era of politicians writing a constitution???! Look at the wrangling over leaving the EU. Lawyers arguing over angels on pinheads. Often totally missing the realpolitik. If leaving a "trading block" takes decades then writing a constitution will no doubt take them several centuries.

So, given my apprehensions I'm now even less sure where my vote is going.

I've been saying on this blog that the Conservatives can't win in this seat (Middlesbrough central). However, I'm now seriously considering voting that way. The Conservative candidate Ruth Betson has started stepping up her campaigning. She even said she'd move to Middlesbrough if she won the seat (!)

The Independent candidate Antony High is continuing to come on leaps and bounds though, and at the moment it's looking like a race between him and the Labour incumbent Andy McDonald. From a tactical point of view it perhaps makes sense to vote for him to block Labour, but; the Brexit issue. To be fair he did actually say on Facebook recently that he voted to leave and has said he'd respect the result. However, yesterday he posted stating that the Brexit Party were;

"Seemingly campaigning on a “Brexit means Brexit at any cost” campaign but, do our local issues not matter to the Brexit Party, or their candidates?"

Complaining about "Brexit at any cost" sounds like a bit of a remainerism.

So at the moment it's probably a choice between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives for me.

Farage On Fire

I was working late yesterday, so couldn't watch the Boris/Corbyn debate live sadly. However, I did watch it in the early hours when I finally got home. I was drifting in and out of it though (and that's not drifting in and out of sleep through tiredness, but drifting in and out of the debate itself through sheer boredom). So I just ended up scrolling through Twitter for most of the time. With that on in the background. It just wasn't that engaging.

Afterwards I then watched Nigel Farage on Question Time. That was completely different. The time flew by. He was very engaged with the audience, very combative and very much on form. He really is a superb public speaker. The audience was mainly hostile, but you could see he was winning them over to some extent. He makes his case and gets on the front foot. Whereas the Tories and Labour tend to pander to the public.

It's going to be really interesting to watch what happens with this over the next few weeks. Farage is going to cause both Labour and Conservatives some real trouble. It's just a question of how much.

Facebook & Twitter

I've been thinking about the impact Facebook and Twitter are having on the election. In many ways Facebook is local, whereas Twitter is national.

Normally the people following political accounts on Twitter are people that have a genuine interest in politics. Most people don't have this avid interest however. Conversely Facebook tends to be much more local. It's people viewing content from friends, family and work colleagues.

I'll go on Twitter and see discussions about Westminster politics. I visit Facebook and see people discussing what's happened on their street, or in their town. It's all just gossip really, but some, like myself, prefer the big gossip to the local stuff. I think people like myself are in the minority though. Most people are predominantly interested in their immediate social circles. They prefer local news and information.

So my feeling is that a strong presence on Facebook is very, very useful when reaching a large chunk of the population. It's very hard to have that though with a standard politics-focused account. As most people don't want their timelines filled with the boredom of national politics. Certainly not all year round anyway. They are however happy to have local gossip (which naturally blurs into local politics) appearing on their timeline.

I think this partly explains the success the current Middlesbrough mayor has had. He's very active on Facebook, and very effective at reaching local people. The Independent candidate Antony High is also now using this Facebook machine to similar effect. It's probably a good example of how local, independent politicians can gain a huge edge over party machines by putting time and effort into building an online presence at the heart of local communities. I wonder how much this is happening around the country.

It may be an indication of the way the Internet will influence politics going forward.

A nice post (..for once!)

I've been doing some more homework on the upcoming election. My last post was a little spikey and opinionated. However, when looking at the candidates it occurs to me that all the people standing in my area seem like really nice people. The Liberal Democrat candidate seems like a very young guy going by his Twitter profile picture. The Green candidate is a local doctor. The Conservative candidate seems like a lovely woman.

It's easy to forget that all these people are standing and putting themselves forward. Putting themselves under the glare of the spotlight. All in a sense of public spirit. All doing it because they believe they're doing the right thing. It's worth remembering, and they all deserve huge credit for giving voters like me an option.

Hopefully they all enjoy the campaign and take great value from it whatever the result.

Sunday Politics...

I've just watched the Brexit Party candidate for my area, Faye Clements, on Sunday Politics. It was the first time I'd seen her interviewed or even heard her voice. She sounded very local. So I think the portrayal of her as being an outsider ..all the way from Thirsk no less (!) ..is a bit unfair.

It edged me further towards voting for the Brexit Party.

As anyone reading this blog will know I'm a little bit torn between my instinct (to vote BXP) and my worry (that I should simply vote for the candidate most likely to beat Labour and not risk splitting the vote).

My honest unbiased opinion is that it's a three way race in this seat at the moment.

Labour are the holders and favourites to win it.
The Brexit Party are (or should have been) the natural alternative.
However, the Independent candidate Antony High has a superb ground campaign underway and has placed himself quite prominently as the alternative to Labour.

So I would say that Labour are favourites, Antony High the second favourite. Then the Brexit Party third in the race at present..

As for the Conservatives, they simply cannot win this seat. If it's in the national interest to avoid a Corbyn government then it's not in the national interest that the Conservatives are standing here. That's just my appraisal of course, and hopefully I'm wrong, but it does look like that.

Shoulda..

I said the Brexit Party should have been the natural alternative. This is my main gripe. This is clearly a Brexit election. It's the whole point of the election. To decide this very important and difficult issue. In a seat like Middlesbrough, a majority leave seat, there should be a clear Brexit option.

The Conservatives can't win here. So can't be an option. So why stand.

To be fair to the Independent candidate he has said he'll respect the Brexit vote. However, it's pretty clear that he himself voted to remain, and that he sees Brexit as a hindrance to be dealt with. Rather than as a positive opportunity to be grasped.

So both these options aren't hugely attractive for Brexiteers. Yet they both stand in the way of a clear Brexit option.

It's turned what should have been a clear binary choice into a very muddy situation.

The fear of a Labour government is very real, but in a way it just highlights the problem with all the established parties. The Brexit Party have stood down in a huge number of seats ..for nothing in return. This is a seat they should always have been standing in. If anything it's their duty to stand here. As with seats like Hartlepool.

So, anyway, my general feeling now is that locally I'll be supporting the Brexit Party. After three and half years of a remain parliament I simply cannot bring myself to vote for anything less than a true leave candidate.

So now the battle lines are drawn let's get on with it.

Labour, Off The Hook In The North ?

Literally a last minute post today. I've been trawling through the various constituencies some more. I still think it's going to be hard to predict what happens. I worry that the lack of a Brexit Party/Conservative pact in the north could be the undoing of things. It's where Labour are weak and by splitting the anti-Labour vote it's letting them off the hook.

They should really be sticking the knife in. Why not give Richard Tice a free run in Hartlepool for a start? You take that seat from Labour and it's instantly Brexit +1, Labour -1. It's a two seat swing in parliament. If Labour retain that seat thanks to vote splitting then how annoying will it be if we're looking back in a few months time with Corbyn in power. All because a Conservative candidate took a few thousand votes perhaps.

Obviously everything's set in place now. So I guess the damage is already done. It feels like a huge missed opportunity though.

Big worry.

I'm slowly coming to the realisation that when it comes to this election no one really knows what's going on. Just looking at my seat - 6 candidates, 3 of whom are essentially anti-Labour candidates. Meaning that the anti-Labour vote could be split three ways, helping Labour retain the seat. If it's like this in other constituencies then it's going to be very hard to predict the outcome. Very difficult for people to know who to vote for, and perhaps increasingly likely that we won't get an outcome reflecting the Brexit vote. This is a big worry.

Also, I've been watching the number of voters registering.

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-breakdown

In 2017 around 2.8 million people registered in the month or so leading up to the vote. A massive 622,000 on the final day alone. Something which massively worked in Corbyn's favour owing to the fact that the majority were younger voters.

It'll be interesting to see if we have a similar spike this time round. It could be a huge factor.

Local Locus

It's getting late, but I'm going to post again tonight. This time in relation to the GE as it stands in my back yard.

Firstly, the candidates for my constituency are now in ink.

(Middlesbrough constituency candidates)

6 to choose from (!)

What's worth pointing out is that three of the candidates have addresses that aren't even in Middlesbrough. Something that has already been noted by many people. The Tory candidate has an address in South Cambridgeshire 😅

You really do wonder why the Conservatives are bothering to stand a candidate in a seat like this. With someone based so far away how can they even have the foot soldiers on the ground to take the fight to Labour. Do they actually think they can win this seat?

Let's see what happens though. Perhaps they'll prove me wrong. At the moment it looks very much like a gift that could've easily been given to the Brexit Party however.

As for the Brexit Party candidate I saw her state today (on Facebook) that half her family is from Middlesbrough and that she spent a lot of time in the town as a child. At the moment I'm still leaning towards voting BXP. So if that continues to be the case I hope she can overcome this sense of "outsider" and get her "smoggyness" on.

Which leads me onto the second point I wanted to make. I mentioned in a previous post that the local newspaper, the Evening Gazette (Teesside Live), seemed to be weighing in behind the Independent candidate. This was just I sense I got from reading the odd article I'd seen, and wasn't backed by anything solid really. However, reading the article today concerning the 2019 candidates I think the intonation is pretty clear.

(click to enlarge)

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news

The article begins by mentioning that the race will be "enlivened" by the decision of the deputy mayor to run as an independent. Suggesting it could be a close run race.

Then it follows on from this. Describing the Brexit Party candidate as "Thirsk's" Faye Clements 😄 Then adding that she may split the non-Labour vote.

So the framing is pretty clear.

(The sheer foreignness of this woman

is quite breathtaking)

Crazy Days

I've been out most of the day and have came in to see that the Brexit Party are accusing the Tories of bribing their candidates, and that Labour are offering everyone free broadband. This really is quite a mad election. I honestly don't know what to expect next.

It does seem like all the parties are trying to bribe the electorate though. Labour in particular seem to be offering the world to the world. With plans to spend very big and have very big, wide open borders.

As I'm typing this I'm also watching the tail end of Question Time. Tonight from Brighton. The candidates on the panel haven't been too bad to be fair. In fact, I feel quite bad for James Cleverly, who's always a very balanced operator. He's really been getting an earful from all sides.

The last question for the panel is about "National Kindness Day" though. Which was yesterday apparently. The level of virtue signalling and emotional pandering from both the politicians and the audience is quite depressing. I really fear for the country. Where is the adult debate? Everything is driven by pure emotion it seems, and transient emotions at that.

A political discussion show, mid-election, and we have a discussion about being "kind". It's like something you would get on a TV show aimed at five year olds.

There seems to be a complete failure on the part of many people to distinguish between an ideal and a practical decision. That if you don't believe in, say open borders, it must be because you're "too mean" or not "kind" enough. With no acknowledgement that in reality there are often difficult decisions to be made where there are no easy or perfect options.

There were two young girls in the audience who spoke very eloquently in defence of immigrants coming to our country, and I really felt their sincerity and idealism coming through. In fact, I completely empathise with their desires and concerns, but where is the counter argument stating, with basic logic, that there are limitations on what we can do as a country. Again, where are the adults or senior figures articulating the problems in a way that pushes people to go beyond the basic yes/no, good/bad argument. Those young women should have been taking part in a nuanced and challenging debate about an important issue. A debate perhaps helping us all to collectively head towards some kind of policy or practical common ground on the issue at hand.

Instead we just have an almost childlike back and forth that offers nothing but empty rhetoric and shoutiness.

General Election Middlesbrough: Momentum and Confidence Building

Well, in Middlesbrough Faye Clements is now our official Brexit Party candidate. It's going to be interesting to see what happens now. I'll be keeping an eagle eye on social media to get a sense of what's going on. Looking today I feel like we're starting to see things kick into gear.

I guess elections are all about momentum. So these next few weeks could be key. I think the aim for any challenging candidate is to become the stand out alternative. People need to feel they're voting for someone who can win. So a visible core support is essential for inspiring confidence. Once you have that established core you can then build momentum in the final few weeks and days.

Mistakes and slips are also important. A big error could be costly if it makes a candidate look un-serious or incapable of achieving office. Though at the same time fear of error is also something that needs to be avoided. As to be the insurgent you need to be brave and bullish. Getting on the front foot is vital.

I suspect it could be a bit of dogfight locally. The Labour candidate Andy McDonald will be getting attacked from all sides. Both the Brexit Party and the independent candidate Antony High are already getting their shots in. They'll also no doubt be desperately competing with each other to present themselves as the real alternative.

I'm assuming a Conservative candidate will likewise be standing here, what with the Conservative insistence that they'll be standing everywhere - however likely or unlikely they are to win. I haven't heard anything in regards them locally so far though. I suspect it may be like the mayoral election from earlier this year. A Conservative stood, but was rarely seen or heard from, and only pulled in the barest minimum of support. He got even less than the third placed independent candidate. However, with this being a national election you'd naturally expect a bigger vote share.

I'm also expecting we'll have a Lib Dem and a Green to choose from. So surely at least a few hardcore remainers will vote Lib Dem if given the option. Likewise the Greens will no doubt pick up some younger people and those attracted to their specific policies. Again though, I've seen nothing locally about these parties. So we await to see what the options are.

Learning English Counties and Constituencies

Time flies when you're slowing plodding through constituencies and their past voting records. It's actually quite interesting though. I'm using Wikipedia now as they provide a map. It's like a crash course in learning where all the various counties are. My knowledge of counties, especially those outside the north of England, has always been very foggy. I might now finally have the sort of useless general knowledge about the country that helps you get the odd quiz show question right.

As for the elections there do seem to be quite a few constituencies where UKIP really did take a hefty chunk out of the Labour vote. It makes me think that Nigel Farage and his team really do have a good point when it comes to all this. Though obviously they have predominantly damaged the Conservative vote in most seats. I'm starting to feel confident that they very much know what they're doing.

I still have quite a lot of constituencies to look through though. So I better crack on.

Brexit Party stand down

My polling card just came in the post, and we now have news that the Brexit Party will not stand candidates in the 300 or so seats currently held by the Conservatives :)

Good news. Engines starting...

Quiet Times..

I'm getting bored of stating it, but we still await a deal between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives. Apparently they're meeting tomorrow to flesh out an agreement. Hopefully all goes well. I guess it's a nice little break really. Once this is or isn't sorted it's full steam ahead. So a break is good perhaps.

As for my local area I'm ever more certain that it will be a straight fight between the Independent candidate and the Labour Party. So that situation seems to be solidifying. Though again, until we see the Brexit/Tory plan we can't really know what the true terrain will be.

Either way nice easy post today (!)

Waiting At Winterfell

Nothing much to post today, I'm still plugging through the constituencies, so I've just knocked up a little image.

(Waiting at Winterfell - they have very modern

looking windows at Winterfell these days)

The A to Z of GE

As I briefly stated yesterday I'm attempting to get a sense of the entire country before polling day. The method I've hit upon is a very simple one. I'm visiting this A-Z of the constituencies on the BBC News website and slowly working my way through them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies

I did "A" today. Lots of Scottish and Welsh constituencies beginning with A it seems.

At present it only shows the election results from 2017 and 2015. It doesn't show who'll be standing this time round. I don't know if this will update once the information about whose standing starts to solidify. Either way it's quite handy familiarising myself with all the names and places. Along with how they voted last time out.

Whether it actually adds any value to my output on this blog remains to be seen, but I'm finding it quite interesting nonetheless.

Very geeky.

..trying to get a picture

Short today. Very short. I've been attempting to look at certain seats in the north to get a sense of what's going on beneath the general polls. I'd like to get to the point where I have a good sense of the overall picture across the country before December 12th. I don't think that's very likely, but it seems worthwhile to at least attempt to go beyond the chatter. Hopefully it might be a fruitful approach. I think I've been getting a little lazy lately and focusing too much on the soap opera. I'm beginning to bore myself even.

So, 650 seats to look at. Can't be too hard.

Why Would You Not Want Farage On Your Team?

Still no agreement between the Tories and BXP it seems. Though Nigel does seem to be making big efforts to focus on attacking Labour now.

I've been watching the Conservative attitude to all this. They do seem very arrogant in regard the situation. I saw Jacob Rees-Mogg (who I'm a huge fan of normally) talk about how Farage needs to see that "he's won" and that it's now time to step down. It was a bit condescending.

They seem to be saying; "You've done your bit, Brexit's back on track, we'll take over now."

I think this attitude worries me more than the actual lack of a pact, as it makes me wonder if they have a real grasp of the situation. The polls look great for the Conservatives, but the polls have been terrible in recent years on every big event. The fact that so much polling is done online means so many parts of the demographic are missed.

I discussed this back in this post --> Aussie Polling Wrong Too

I may have to revisit this topic over the coming weeks.

I really can't understand why the Conservatives aren't throwing the Brexit Party a few seats in the north of England. There are some seats where the Tories simply can't win. Surely you'd rather have a Brexit Party MP than a Labour MP in these seats. What's to lose? Plus it gets Farage to stand down in Tory seats. If they're just looking at the polls and thinking we're going to smash this then it worries me a little. Corbyn is a very good campaigner, and the media seem to be giving him an easier ride so far. Again, why would you not want someone like Farage on your team? It means you're up against two superb soap box politicians. Both with the common touch, albeit in very different ways.

My neck of the woods...

I'm still unsure how I'll be voting. I'd really like to vote for the Brexit Party. However, I'm now fairly certain it'll be a straight up battle between Labour and the Independent candidate Antony High. He continues to get good traction on social media, and also the local newspaper seems to be framing it as him against Labour. So will a Brexit candidate get much of a foot in the door given the local terrain?

Still plenty of time to go. So things may change, but I think the die is cast to a large extent.

Mountains To Climb

I had a dream last night where I was talking to Richard Tice about climate change 😅 We were going mountain climbing for some unknown reason. I think it must have been because I watched his interview with Iain Dale yesterday. Funny how the brain works. I hope it isn't a metaphor for this upcoming election.

Why can't I have dreams about Priti Patel.

Anyway. dreams aside. Once again there isn't too much to post today and we still await to see the lay of the land in regards how the Brexit Party and Conservatives will accommodate each other.

No Agreement: Blame On Both Sides

I nearly forgot to post on here today. I was going to post earlier, but then thought I might as well wait until there was a bit more news regarding any BXP/Tory alliance. Then I completely forgot, and it's only just hit me I haven't posted anything. Either way there hasn't been much more news sadly.

I'm still expecting some kind of stand down at some point over the next week or so, but it's starting to reach the point now where people are panicking. With a growing amount of niggle online between Faragists and Borisites.

As I mentioned yesterday I think blame has to lie on both sides. People seem to be placing the blame predominantly on the Brexit Party. However, the Conservative party aren't really offering BXP very much. If anything. They seem to be approaching this election as business as usual. Hoping for a Conservative majority with no need or desire for any sort of compact with the Brexit Party.

Again, people just expect Farage to stand down his troops. Yet before the election was called everyone on the leave side of the argument was hoping for and expecting some kind of agreement. It made perfect sense.

That was the whole reason Brexiteers were so confident in demanding a GE.

Winter is Coming Again

Well, Farage is still stating that he'll stand candidates in 600 constituencies. Obviously this isn't ideal, so hopefully he pulls back.

Taking things at face value though and assuming everyone has true intentions it's also worth pointing out that the Conservatives are likewise being somewhat idealistic. Standing candidates in all seats and offering the Brexit Party no free run anywhere. Not even in a few seats where Tories can never win.

About an hour or so ago I made this point to someone on Twitter. However, I've also just been out walking and I was thinking further about it all.

Let's say you have a Labour stronghold seat where most people will simply never vote Tory. Like my constituency here in Middlesbrough. In fact, it's perhaps worth putting this into perspective in simple terms for anyone reading that isn't from the working class north.

I could probably persuade some of my friends and family members to vote Brexit Party. It would be quite an easy discussion to have, and with the current anger people have towards Labour they'd certainly at least be open to the prospect. However, alternately, not only would I struggle to convince anyone to vote Conservative, it would be difficult to even have the conversation. As there's such an ingrained anti-Tory attitude that I'd be instantly disowned by many people. If you even raise the prospect that you yourself might be voting that way you're instantly confronted with cries of "coal miners" and "poll tax". It's almost a cultural taboo, as strange as that sounds.

The Brexit Party simply don't have that same baggage.

Anyway, let's say you have a seat contested between Labour and BXP, but a Conservative candidate is also standing. How will this affect things. They'll get their small rump Conservative vote, no doubt in the low thousands - people who have simply voted Conservative all their life. This could split the Brexit vote and lead to Labour getting past the post with a relatively small percentage vote share.

However, we're all working on the assumption here that these Tory voters will move to a pro-Brexit option if their option to vote Conservative is taken away. However, that may not necessarily be the case. They might not care one jot about Brexit. They may simply move over to Labour as they're the next major party on the ballot paper. They might think the Brexit Party are too extreme. Or have other reasons for not voting that way. So perhaps a Conservative candidate could benefit a BXP one to some degree.

It's all much more complicated when you actually try to imagine the multitude of people going out to vote and put an X in their box for their own personal reasons and feelings.

This complexity makes me wonder if I should just keep my mouth shut and let nature take its course. Perhaps trying to second guess things and play a tactical game will accidentally make things much worse. Just have faith.

Though saying all that it's very hard to imagine that having multiple pro-Brexit candidates on the ballot won't do big, big damage to the Brexit cause.

Game of Brexit

On a lighter note I've been doing some daft photoshopping. So much of Brexit politics reminds me of Game of Thrones for some reason. The current situation has echoes of seasons 7 & 8. That good feeling you got when you saw all the "good guys" finally team up to take on the White Walkers.

Jon Snow, Jaime Lannister, The Hound, The Red Woman, Tormund - all coming together for the greater good.

You're kind of hoping for that now as we head into icy December. Dominic Cummings, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson all teaming up for one final battle to deliver Brexit.

Is it gonna happen though?

(Ann Widdecombe and Nigel Farage

arrive in Winterfell)

Northern Vacuum

A little short one today. The General eBrextion flow continues. I'm mainly seeing a lot of debate online about vote BP, get Labour. The vote-splitting fear is real for sure, and again, we await to see the full Brexit Party strategy.

My fear though is that with the media being so London-centric we'll see another vote or election where the political class completely misread the north and other parts of the country. With the focus so far being more on what a threat the Brexit Party could be to Brexit in the south, than on what a huge potential gain they could be for Brexit in the north.

Labour are very weak up here. Historically weak. They are ripe for the taking. In many seats though the Tories simply aren't the party to do that. Farage should just come up here and park the tanks on Labour's lawn, but I think even Farage feels a little bit uncomfortable campaigning up here. The truth is politics by and large is something that happens further south, and we up here simply pick a brand that's on offer. We don't really have a party. Scotland has its SNP, Wales and Northern Ireland have their various parties. The north of England, especially now that Labour have abandoned it, is a real blank canvas.

(Boris watching Deal or No Deal

..ba da boom)

Waiting on the Brexit Party

Well, we still don't quite know how many candidates Farage will stand. He offered Boris a deal today. Boris refused. We wait and see now how Nigel responds.

I'm hoping, and expecting, that the Brexit Party will be sensible and will attack Labour seats and give the Conservatives a swerve. Will be truly crazy if they don't.

now local stuff !!!

I've been following the local electioneering too today a little bit. It's hard to get a sense of what the ground will look like until we see the Brexit Party plan. I fully expect them to stand a candidate in my constituency. Traditional Labour, will never vote Tory.

Will they stand the same candidate they have pinned for the area currently though or will they parachute someone else in?

The current candidate, Faye Clements, seems very nice from what I've witnessed on social media. She's still largely unknown though.

Either way she or some other Brexit Party candidate will probably be getting my vote as I've edged a lot closer to voting BP today. The independent candidate, Antony High, who I mentioned a few posts ago. He simply doesn't seem to be a nailed on Brexiteer. He says he would respect the result of the referendum, which is commendable. However, the responses I've seen him give to people on social media when asked about it don't fill me with hope.

Brexit is of course the major issue for me. So I can't possibly vote for any person or party that isn't fully committed to the leave cause - whatever the mathematics of the vote. I mentioned in the last post on this topic that the Mayor of Middlesbrough (candidate Antony High is his deputy) ran a superbly effective campaign earlier this year. Thrashing the Labour candidate. So going by that I would think his deputy has a real chance of success.

If there is a three way split it would no doubt benefit Labour greatly though. So it may mean I'll be throwing my vote away if I choose the third placed option. Were it a simple head to head I would put good money on Labour losing this seat, but if the alternative isn't clear then the core Labour vote up here will surely save them.

Going to be very exciting to watch it all unfold though.