I'm going to try to keep it short today, I'm super tired after staying up until the early hours watching all the results come in. As for my predictions my main takeaway is that I'm right about what's going on in my realm (the north of England), but wrong about everywhere else.
I think I've extrapolated my biases to the rest of the country. Both my experiential bias, which comes from my everyday experience of life, and also my Brexit bias. So I massively underestimated both the Lib Dems and the SNP vote. There's a big lesson for me here. When the results are completely in and the dust has settled I'll look at where my predictions went right and wrong in more detail.
As for how it all affects the Brexit debate in general I think it's difficult to tell. Both sides are now in spin mode. Though all I could see all night was the big chunk in the middle (the core Labour and Tory vote, perhaps the core SNP and Green vote too) that don't seem to see Brexit as the most important issue for them. Plus of course the numerous people who didn't come out to vote. Ultimately it's now a battle for those people I guess.
I'm still a little amazed that the Lib Dems got 20% of the vote. Bollocks to Brexit seemed a little bit cringe to me, but I guess it worked.
Also it looks like this vote will now push Labour to adopt a remain stance. Which means that Labour are dead in the north ..unless Brexit gets solved sometime soon that is.
I'll pick the bones in future posts.
No comments:
Post a Comment