Eurovisions of the Future

So it's Eurovision tonight, well the European election results anyway. Though both feel a little similar. There's something mesmerising about watching that scoreboard update. Seeing what so many people, from so many different nations, think about something is fascinating. Even if it's just about not-so-great music. I'm sure tonight will be similar. Passing judgement on equally unoriginal performances.

As I noted yesterday, I'm starting to feel a little apprehensive as a Brexiteer. I'm not changing any of my predictions (which I'll share below). That would be a bit cheeky. I'll have to live with them. I think what's unnerving me is that the latest polls tend to be similar to what I stated. Which can't be a good sign surely. It seems they're nearly always badly wrong these days.

Also, this morning I was thinking about the UKIP vote. Everyone, including myself, has slashed it right down in favour of the Brexit Party. Which seems sensible. However, given that polling has tended to underestimate the right-leaning vote in recent times I'm now beginning to wonder if the polling surveys are reaching the UKIP folk. Plus, the Yaxley-Lennon media enterprise does have a hell of a wide reach on social media. So, the size of the UKIP vote could be underappreciated, which would end up playing a part in the overall seat allocation.

I'll also be really interested to see how Scotland goes. I'm predicting that the SNP will have a bit of a dip. Which is the one prediction I'm making that still seems something of a straying from the herd.

So, this is what I went with;

The Brexit Party - 37%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 12%

Lib Dems - 10%

Greens - 9%

Change UK - 3%

UKIP - 3%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 8%

Looking at it again, it does seem a little bold compared to the polling. 40% for UKIP and the Brexit Party combined. Maybe that was wishful thinking on my part. Many of the polls seem to have the Lid Dems a lot higher as well. So I'm perhaps doing them a big disservice. One in ten voters seems like a decent chunk for them though. Of course, the fact that I'm giving up 8% to account for the various other parties in the United Kingdom skews things a little too in comparison to the standard polls. So I'll have to look at the overall vote share to see how well or badly I've done following the results.

Finally, I'm also really looking forward to seeing the results from across Europe. I've been following European politics much more than I normally would in the last few weeks or so and I feel like I'm finally getting a feel for things. In many ways the pro and anti-EU votes in Europe will be just as important for Britain as the pro and anti ones here.