EU Elections - What Would Be Success?

In the last post I showed this little schematic;

However, I failed to state what success for either side would be.

It's really hard to judge. The most basic way of judging will simply be which side gets the larger vote share. Can this really be considered a "win" for either side of the argument though given it represents such a small share of the wider vote?

For the EU referendum back in 2016 the turnout was a huge 72.2%. The turnout for the last EU elections in the UK, in 2014, was 35.6%. So if the turnout out is similar this time about half the voting population will be unrepresented in the numbers. On top of that many will be voting Conservative or Labour, so it'll be difficult to gauge where these voters stand on the EU issue. What with it being so difficult to gauge where the parties themselves stand.

So it stands to reason we'll be witnessing the hardcore vote on either side bringing their troops to the table. With the "average" semi-engaged voter's opinion - the opinion which would ultimately swing any vote - remaining elusive.

So the bigger the turnout the better. The bigger the vote share the better.