The EU Elections As Referendum 2.0

(A little image I knocked up before writing - whilst writing

however I realised the SDP aren't even standing any candidates

in the EU elections, showing my total ignorance. I quickly deleted

it from Twitter when I realised having uploaded it there too

- hopefully no one noticed XD )

So it looks as though the UK will definitely be taking part in the EU elections on the 23rd of this month. This is something that'll be absolutely fascinating to watch. I'm actually looking forward to it. It's not quite up there with the final few episodes of Game of Thrones, or the Champions League final. However, it's definitely very much circled in the TV guide.

Part of the reason I'm posting here is that I want to record my thoughts beforehand this time. The recent local elections seemed to go the way I felt they would go. It's hard to tell if this is just hindsight on my part or if I was truly on the money though. We tend to remember the things that go our way, but conveniently forget the things that we don't get quite right. So it's useful to have something in writing to refer back to. It's very easy to say "ha! I said that would happen", but harder to prove, even to ourselves, that we actually said it.

Also, as these EU elections are effectively another referendum on Brexit, it would be interesting to set some parameters by which to judge things.

On the one hand we have the pro-Brexit parties - UKIP, the Brexit Party, not the SDP - though they are at least pro-Brexit :) As well we also have the English Democrats, who I'm even more ignorant of. Perhaps I should've stuck them in the image?

(Better ?)

On the pro-EU side we have the SNP, the Green Party, Change UK and the Liberal Democrats. There's also a party standing called the UK European Union Party. Again, no idea who they are, other than that they're anti-Brexit. So I'll add 'em to the list too.

There are also of course a multitude of other independent candidates, parties and whatnot standing. Taking various positions on the EU issue. Which for the sake of brevity, and my own boredom, I'll ignore. I'll also pass over the various Welsh and Northern Irish parties. Though this is more out of necessity due to my own clueless ignorance in regard their workings.

So, really we only have to pay attention to the more well-known parties. In regards Brexit it's pretty much;

UKIP and the Brexit Party

vs

The SNP, Greens, Change UK and the Lib Dems

So which block will get the bigger share of the overall vote? And how big a share would be big enough to "win it" for one side or the other?

There are also other important questions such as; how high will the turn out be? and how much of a share of the vote will Labour and the Conservatives get?

Can we use this as a mock second referendum given so many people will simply not turn out to vote? Likewise, it'll be pretty much impossible to tell where Labour and Conservative voters stand on the issue. No doubt those who vote for the two main parties this time will be voting purely because they've always voted that way. Core voters in effect. With the SNP there'll also be a multitude of voters going with that party for reasons other than Brexit.

UK results for 2014 EU elections

UKIP - 26.6%

Labour - 24.4%

Conservative - 23.1%

Greens - 6.9%

Lib Dems - 6.6%

SNP - 2.4%

Other (Various) - 10%

The above results from 2014 are probably a good guideline. Before the EU referendum, with membership of the EU itself being the key issue for many people voting.

However, a lot has changed since then. A sensible person would perhaps predict something similar this time, maybe with a smaller vote share for both Labour and Conservative. The big question would then be, where will those Labour/Tory votes go?

My own feeling is that the pro-Brexit parties will do very well. The two main parties will get destroyed and that the remain parties will likewise grow their vote share. With the exception of the SNP, who I think will take a hit.

In fact, living in the north of England (and being part Scottish myself) my feeling has always been that Scotland and northern England are very, very similar once you get past the kilts and orange wigs. Similar people, similar attitudes, similar towns and cities. The general view is that the Scottish hate the English, but really they just tend to hate London and the south xD I've often witnessed northerners bonding with their Scottish brethren over their mutual hatred of London.

I remember when the SNP started to do really well in Scotland. People in the north were actually pretty jealous. Not because of the nationalist cause, but because the SNP seemed to be offering a brand of socialism more in keeping with the views of traditional Labour working class voters. I honestly believe that if the SNP had stood candidates in the north of England they'd have won seats at that time. People in the north of England really hate Blairite Labourism, but they've simply never had anywhere else to go. I think the success the SNP have had in Scotland is largely because of this factor.

This is why I think they'll start to take a hit now. They're becoming a bit establishment themselves these days. So I very much doubt that the view in Scotland will be hugely different to the view in England and Wales now the SNP dust has settled and the Brexit issue has taken full flight.

Still though I am English, so I'm a little bit tentative about second guessing the Scottish people.

So let's make some predictions

Many of the polls at the moment seem to have Labour polling much higher than the Tories. With Labour in the twenties and the Conservatives in the teens. I'd say let's slash that Labour vote and bring them down into the teens as well. So let's go with;

Labour - 16%

Conservatives - 13%

Many of the polls are also putting Chuka's Change UK party in the 5-10% range. Now I can't really imagine one in ten British voters going that way. So let's put that a little lower. 4%. Giving us.

Labour - 16%

Conservatives - 13%

Change UK - 4%

Both the Greens and the Lib Dems are polling around the 8% mark. I'm happy to give them that. In fact, let's knock the Greens up to 9%. Most the polls I've seen also seem to show the SNP around the 4% mark. Given they got 2.4% in the 2014 EU vote I'll give them 2% this time. I'll give all the various other parties a collective 10%. As in 2014.

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 13%

Change UK - 4%

Lib Dems - 8%

Greens - 9%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 10%

Leaving, if my maths is correct, 38% for the two major Brexit parties. Let's give the Brexit Party 32% and UKIP 6%.

So my overall prediction is;

The Brexit Party - 32%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 13%

Greens - 9%

Lib Dems - 8%

UKIP - 6%

Change UK - 4%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 10%

Let's see how right (or woefully wrong) I am on the 23rd of May.