EU Poll Predictions - Edited

I think I'll have to update my poll predictions. It feels a little bit like cheating changing them, but having watched things over the last week or so my views have shifted a little.

This is what I had;

The Brexit Party - 32%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 13%

Greens - 9%

Lib Dems - 8%

UKIP - 6%

Change UK - 4%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 10%

However, 6% for UKIP seems a little optimistic now given how much they've nosedived. It's almost like they've disappeared from the debate. So I'll give two-thirds of their vote to Nigel.

I've also noticed that the general polls seem to have dropped Change UK to below 5% now. More in line with what I  was thinking. So I think I'll bring them even lower. I'll go with 3%. The Lib Dems can get an extra mark.

So for now I'll state;

The Brexit Party - 36%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 13%

Greens - 9%

Lib Dems - 9%

Change UK - 3%

UKIP - 2%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 10%

I'm tempted to take both Labour and Conservatives even lower. Some polls are suggesting that the Conservatives could end up in single figures. I'll stick with what I've got though.

Also, I've given a standard 10% to cover all the other parties across the UK. A copy and paste from the results of 2014, according to Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

However, 2.5% of that went to the BNP and a minor eurosceptic party called Independence from Europe. So perhaps I should give that, or a chunk of it at least, to the major pro-Brexit parties. In fact, I will. Let's give one percent to each. Actually come to think of it, I'll also knock a percentage point off the Tory vote and give it to the Lib Dems. So scratch that last list xD

The more I think about it the more it seems that there's little reason for Conservative voters to support their party at this election, and if even the normal polls are showing a drop the actuality must be pretty bad indeed.

The Brexit Party - 37%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 12%

Lib Dems - 10%

Greens - 9%

Change UK - 3%

UKIP - 3%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 8%

Hopefully that's it and I won't have to change things again before the election comes round. Then again though a week seems a long time in politics these days :)