Labour Which Way. Part 2.

A few days ago I said I would look at whether it would benefit Labour more if they went remain over leave. I've had a think and have came to the conclusion that I don't really know. I think it really is just a judgement call at this point.

The poll that originally got me thinking about it was this one;

(click to enlarge)

Suggesting that Labour would go up 12 points if they moved to a pro-remain position.

A general reading of the poll would suggest that they've took most those votes from the Lib Dems (down -6 in the poll) and the Greens (-4). The Lib Dem shift seems logical. The Green vote looks a little odd though. You'd think the Greens would be guaranteed at least 5% in these EU elections whatever happens.

So again, my feeling still is that Labour are losing a lot of support to the Brexit Party. The towns in the north of England are Labour's castle strongholds. A loyal core vote. If you lose territory like that on the map you really end up with a big problem. Again though, it's very hard to judge.

It's going to be fascinating to see the results of yesterday's vote.