Picking The Bones Out

Okay, so first up. Let's get this out the way, let's look at the results and compare them to my poor predictions. I'll use the results as they're given on Wikipedia.

(2019 result, courtesy of Wiki

 - click to enlarge)

This is what I predicted;

The Brexit Party - 37%

Labour - 16%

Conservative - 12%

Lib Dems - 10%

Greens - 9%

Change UK - 3%

UKIP - 3%

SNP - 2%

Other (Various) - 8%

This was the reality;

The Brexit Party - 31%

Labour - 14%

Conservative - 9%

Lib Dems - 20%

Greens - 12%

Change UK - 3%

UKIP - 3%

SNP - 4%

Other (Various) - 4% (5.6% technically, but many of the numbers for the above parties were rounded up)

I think in hindsight the first numbers represented my hopes, the second set the grey reality :)

Moving on. In an earlier post I shared this image - 

(Brexit in the Scales)

Now since the vote this has been one of the big debates. Adding up the votes on each side to give a mock referendum result. It's a very crude method, and the spin has been heavy on both sides. It was the question I was asking before the vote though, so let's have a look. I'll use the Wikipedia figures again.

Leave. Brexit Party (30.5) + UKIP (3.2) + Eng. Democrats (0.2) = 33.9%

Remain. SNP (3.5) + Green (11.8) + CHUK (3.3) + Lib Dem (19.6) = 38.2%

I should really add Plaid Cymru (1.0) as they're remain also. Which would bump remain up to 39.2%.

So looking at it from that angle you'd have to call it as a victory for remain. Of course, there are a million ways you can spin all this. You could point out that the Conservative Party are technically a leave party. You could also argue that many Green and SNP voters were no doubt voting with other issues as their priority.

Plus, of course, the Brexit Party did win quite handsomely as a single party.

However, I'd be very cautious in calling it either way, and I think it would be foolish for either side to think they're somehow in a winning position. The reality is that there's a huge chunk of voters in the middle who either don't have a strong position on Brexit, don't consider the issue a priority, or simply aren't bothered enough to vote. So any future referendum or Brexit-focused election would be a total dogfight. With both sides having to battle for every half-hearted voter and fence-sitter.

As I've mentioned on here before. As a Brexit supporter I often wonder if we've missed the boat by not getting the May deal through. It wasn't what any Brexiteer wanted, but it was out. If someone had offered me that long before the referendum I'd have bitten their hand off. Technically out is at least a base for getting properly out. It would also be a bulwark against people trying to take us further in. The true blinding fear for anyone worried about the direction of travel the EU is taking us all in.

The spin on both sides of the argument is already starting to annoy me. No doubt normal, less politically invested people, will be even more tired of it all ..and when normal, average people stop caring the pro-Brexit side has a big problem.

Now it just has to be about winning. Winning the argument. Winning where you need to win. Conceding ground and compromising when it's expedient to do so. I feel it's all getting lost in the hyperbole though.