Guessing Games.

So yesterday I was a little bit pensive and unsure what to post. Today it's a little similar, only it's compounded by the fact that I've just cut my finger whilst making something to eat 😄 So I'm struggling to type with one hand at the moment.

Anyhow, today I've followed a lot of the action and it's been busy. The Labour Party have looked very much on the back foot all day. I'm starting to see the cracks. They're getting very jaded by the process it seems. From following things on Twitter I feel that the Dominic Cummings stratagems are working quite well. Playing a bad hand quite expertly. Though again, as with yesterday I'm so disinclined to trust the various players in this game that I find myself wondering if everything I see is sincere.

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill passed with fairly impressive numbers, relatively speaking. However, the 'timetable' for getting it through the house was voted down. It's difficult to tell how many voted for the bill tactically, knowing they could simply block the timetable. I would suspect that many are playing this chess game (lots of game metaphors today) so though the bill passing was impressive I would suspect that the numbers are still heavily against Boris.

The government have now chosen to pause the legislation. Which, I think means we now wait to see what sort of extension the EU offer. To me any speculation about this is pointless as the EU will always offer extension on top of extension.

All talk now seems to be about an election. I still don't see us getting there anytime soon though, as an election would also need to be voted on by the house, and it doesn't serve remainer interests to have one. There seems to be an assumption that the SNP will vote for one, which may be true, but I can imagine again that they'll do what's strategically necessary to block Brexit. Listening to Ian Blackford in particular (SNP leader in the House of Commons) I think he would literally say up is down and black is white if it was politically expedient. So saying they want an election and actually voting for one are two different things. Even more so with the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

Hopefully my instinct is wrong and some kind of Brexit finds a route through, but I lack optimism.

Also, it's looking like any sort of leave on October 31st is now completely dead and buried. So that means Boris hasn't "died in a ditch" and continues on, inside the EU, beyond that date. That means now the knives are even more out for Boris from people on the hard Brexit side, as there's the feeling that he hasn't delivered and could've stood firmer.

From what I'm reading some people seem to think that there were mechanisms for forcing through a "no deal" but that No. 10 lacked the "political will". Personally I can't really see how they could deliver that in a fully lawful way given the situation in parliament. So I'm happy to place the blame elsewhere. Others aren't so forgiving though, and sadly I'm not really in a position to know with any certainty if they have a point or not. The arcana of law and parliamentary proceedings being beyond me.

Farage and the Brexit Party

Over the last few days Farage has been quite strongly against this Boris deal. As have other hard Brexiteers. Now another deadline has been crossed that chasm seems to be getting bigger. The dream team going into any election is Farage/Brexit Party and Cummings/Boris/Conservatives. If both groups are taking a different position who do you support? Who are the real Brexiteers?

Are both groups genuine with genuine convictions - just slightly different viewpoints and strategies. Or can one group (or both) actually not be trusted. Are the Tories simply interested in winning power and maintaining the establishment status quo? On the other hand are Farage and the Brexit Party just being unrealistic and overly idealistic about Brexit? Or are they self-interested and insincere themselves? [Sorry for being so cynical, it's nothing personal if you're in either camp, but you get so accustomed to seeing insincerity that blind trust feels massively foolish. So I have to ask.]

It's so much easier, and nicer, when you can just take everything at face value.

Also of course, and I'll make this the final point, it's not simply about trust, it's also about bottle to some extent. It's very easy to say you'll take the country out on "no deal", but when you're in that position it's not so easy to be as brash and confident. So, even if Boris could've pushed more for a "no deal" would it be an indication of dishonesty if he didn't. Or would it just be an indication of cold feet and caution?

We need a Trump type leader really to do this, but with our system I think even he would need a majority in parliament to make strong, decisive executive decisions.