Vote Jesus, Get Buddha

I didn't send a nicely worded email asking my MP to vote for the deal. Having looked at what the Labour front bench seem to be saying it would be pretty pointless. Even if it was read. Though perhaps I may change my mind later on. Maybe thousands of constituents are currently doing the same thing. So who knows, perhaps the sheer weight of appeal could make a slight difference.

Looking at the overall big picture though I'm actually not too worried whatever happens. I think these are the potential scenarios.

• The vote gets passed
• The vote doesn't pass and we head on to a "no deal" leave (though I still don't see how they get round the Benn Act)
• We somehow end up going to a general election
• We have a second referendum - either tagged onto this deal or reached by some other route

Now I'm being brave here as no doubt there'll be all manner of drama and shenanigans tomorrow and over the next two weeks. So any sort of predictions are potentially foolish. However, going through these options I think eventually all lead to some kind of leave.

• The vote gets passed

We leave.

• The vote doesn't pass and we head on to a "no deal" leave

We leave.

• We somehow end up going to a general election

Providing the Brexit Party don't go full kamikaze and attack the Tory vote then we should see a leave majority. Giving a mandate for an even harder leave and removing many of the Remainers in parliament.

• We have a second referendum

This is the least attractive option. As I've mentioned before my main opposition to this is that it would be a form of national humiliation. It's like being asked a question by a school bully - you give the wrong answer and they grab you by the scruff of the neck and say "I'll ask you again". However, given the British psyche I think it's highly likely that we'd give the same answer whatever the circumstances. Even if on paper it's 'Remain versus a soft Brexit'.

The biggest danger with this would be the Brexit Party and other hard Brexiteers going down the principled route of boycotting the entire thing. In fact, I think if we end up in this situation there'll be a lot of propaganda covertly from the remain side pushing leavers towards that position. After all, it makes perfect sense to split and weaken the opposition vote.

I can understand why people like Nigel Farage are currently saying they would boycott any referendum without a full, clean break leave on the ballot paper. It's a good strategy to help us avoid that prospect. It would be stupid to agree to such a vote. That would give the idea legitimacy in many people's eyes. However, if that situation is thrust upon us it's important to accept the situation and just get on with things. It's very rare that you get to vote for the perfect option. Nearly all elections are about voting for the least worst option. Sadly we don't get to vote for Jesus or Buddha at elections, or some other perfect being or perfectly right outcome. We have to vote for the path, not the destination.

Again, if the leave side doesn't boycott I think we win that as well.

We'll see what happens tomorrow now.