Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Referendum: No Deal vs EU Army

So back to Brexit. I've just watched Tony Blair on The Andrew Neil Show arguing his case for a second referendum. The biggest problem I have with the idea of a second referendum is that we can't trust this parliament to frame the question fairly. Obviously the other big problem is that we've already had the referendum. So even a win for remain would just make it 1-1.

He was also arguing against a general election. Unsurprisingly. Which I can understand as a general election must be a pretty terrifying prospect for people on the remain side. In fact, personally I'm now back to my default position of not expecting an election any time soon. I think parliament will cause chaos. I think they will block leaving. I think they will cling on to their green benches long enough to bring about a referendum, or some other mechanism to stop Brexit.

I hope I'm wrong and the government can wrangle some way out of this bind, but I don't expect it.

Anyway, returning to the idea of a referendum. Aside from the fact that the question will be loaded. I'm actually not that fearful of it. Whatever the question posed the real question will be a simple one.

No Deal vs EU army

I think the remain faction are imagining any referendum will be the fear of "no deal" versus their seemingly more moderate option. However, once again I think they're misreading both the mood and shrewdness of the nation. The fear of "no deal" is wearing off. [The. Boy. Cried. Wolf.] The fear of an EU army is becoming realised, and ever more evidenced.

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