Aftermath Analysis

My plan before the election was to compare social media likes/followers with the actual results. Particularly with regard to rate of change. I'll do this in good time, however, I'm now much less inclined to think I'll find anything of value doing this. I will do it though. I might have a little start mocking up some tables tomorrow if I have time.

It's probably worth stating too that Farage was right in many ways and that the Brexit Party did help the Conservatives in many seats by stripping down the Labour vote. In my blushing backtrack to praise the Conservative campaign in the election aftermath I failed to mention this. (That was quite a sentence wasn't it). But he was right. It varied and worked the other way in some seats, but the general thesis was correct and it needs remembering.

I know some people in my everyday life that would vote Brexit Party, but that would never consider going Conservative. Again, that northern cultural antipathy to the Conservatives. Something which is clearly breaking down, but which nevertheless is still a huge factor. I also had experience of people voting Labour "to stop the Conservatives", even though they themselves were unhappy with Labour and thinking about other parties. They still viewed Labour as the lesser evil. So perhaps Conservatives standing in some of these very hard Labour seats actually budged up the Labour vote.

It would've been nice if the Conservatives had stood aside in at least one seat so we would be able to have a comparison with which to judge the other results by.

A few other factors also counting against the Brexit Party worth mentioning are, firstly; the psychology, driven by everyone stating that they can't win. Something further hammered home by the Conservatives not giving them a foot in the door. People are very disinclined to vote for a party they think can't win. So once this narrative is established it's very difficult to overcome.

Secondly, the Channel 4 exposé featuring the racist Brexit Party councillor in Hartlepool. This was very damaging indeed. I didn't watch it when it went out (I'm not a big fan of Channel 4 News 😏 ), but I caught it just before the election. It made the Brexit Party look like the BNP. Of course, it's a complete misrepresentation of what the party is and what they stand for, but it played into the media narrative perfectly.

I mentioned to a work colleague I'd voted Brexit Party and they immediately brought it up. It was very embarrassing and very hard to explain. No one wants to be associated with people who speak and behave like that, even if in just a tenuous way. So it will no doubt have put many people off.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Brexit Party now. It feels like they've served their purpose, but things change pretty quickly. Plus, I can only see the Labour Party collapsing further now. They've completely lost touch with their base and have no figures in the party capable of leading them back. So there certainly is a gap for something.