Thursday, December 26, 2019

Hartlepool - Table Time

I finally got some tables knocked up. I found a burst of energy late last night.

(A little one showing the basic result)

Brexit Party third, but the vote share of the top two both dropped.

(Twitter and Facebook in the weeks up leading
- click to enlarge)

The excessive colours probably just add to the confusion. I think I just enjoyed the colouring-in too much. Incidentally the Twitter "week 3" should also read 6 days not 7.

A little bit of context; For the Liberal Democrat candidate I had to use the Facebook page for the Hartlepool Liberal Democrats as there didn't appear to be a specific candidate page. Likewise when it came to Twitter I had to use the Hartlepool Conservatives account and the Hartlepool Socialist Labour Party account for their respective candidates.

Also, the original Twitter figure for Richard Tice was just an approximation. As I just noted the 60.8k rounded figure as displayed on Twitter when I first began. Instead of hovering my little cursor and getting the specific number.

What Can We Learn..

As with the Middlesbrough information I gathered I don't think there's too much here that reveals anything especially interesting. However, the one thing that stands out to me is that once again we have an independent candidate with a decent whack of votes, a decent whack of Facebook likes and a poor showing on Twitter.

The independent candidate standing in Hartlepool was a young looking guy by the name of Joe Bousfield. I know very little about him or his politics, and just have the numbers to go on. After the Labour and Brexit Party candidates he had the most Facebook likes.

344 doesn't seem like a great deal, but as anyone who's tried to build a Facebook page for a business/band/project/etc will know, anything in the hundreds is pretty damn good. Especially when compared to the Conservative's measly 44 and the Lib Dem's 13.

The two candidates above him both had a huge advantage too. The Labour candidate being the established candidate in a heavily Labour area, and Richard Tice, of course, being a major national figure in politics.

As for Twitter it was quite the opposite. His account having just the 3 followers after "week 1". Following which his account seemed to disappear, at least for me trying to find it anyway. I'm guessing he may have took it down. Deeming the lack of action on it more a hindrance to his chances than a help. Which was a smart and sensible move if indeed that was the case.

In the actual election itself he got 911 votes. Again not massively mind blowing, but still quite an impressive toll for an independent candidate in a crowded field.

In Middlesbrough Central the independent candidate Antony High performed similarly. Though to a much greater extreme. His page had the second most Facebook likes - a huge five thousand, on a par with the Labour incumbent. And again, he pulled in an impressive number of votes; 4,548 in total. Likewise his Twitter was quiet and unimpressive. Having the second least followers. Above only the Green candidate.

Conclusion.

This tells me that these candidates have been tapping into something the major parties haven't. By being active in the local community and combining that with a Facebook, not Twitter, focused campaign they've picked up a large swathe of voters.

There's been much talk of how the "remainer" establishment and the Labour Party in tow have been trapped in the Twitter bubble. However, it seems that we've all been trapped there to some degree. With remain/LibDem/Labour just being the worst offenders.

Facebook is local and more intimate. It's where many "normal" people - the type of people who aren't obsessed with politics the way bloggers like me are - get their information concerning politics. With it coming through a more local filter. Almost by osmosis as a subsection of local gossip and local news in general.

I think any party that can learn how to tap into this may get big dividends at the next election.

Also it makes me wonder if the work balance of MPs is correct. Should they be spending more time in their communities and a bit less time at Westminster. There's clearly been a communication issue, with politicians losing touch with what normal constituents think. The information flow and communication opportunities of the Internet should in theory have helped things, but in actuality it's created a further wall. A layering effect.

(There's so much information online it takes real intelligence to dig through it all and know where to focus. People who can cut through it, like Trump, are doing well. Many are getting lost though.)

Perhaps there could be some minor reform made to how British politics operates to give politicians more time in their constituency.

Also, if this trend towards "localism" continues it makes me think that some kind of Scottish Independence will be inevitable. The distance between Scotland and London, especially in regards the travelling time, just adds a further layer.

2 comments:

  1. That IND joseph Bousfield was he a Remainer? If a Leaver why wd he set himself to take votes from his Brexit Party. Surely he knew he might damage TBP's chances?

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    1. I'm not sure if he was remain or leave, I couldn't find too much information about him at the time. If I recall correctly I think he just focused on local issues.

      He picked up a fair few votes though for an IND candidate, so the impact of him standing could certainly have swung it had things have been a bit different.

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