Saturday, December 21, 2019

Middlesbrough Central. Tables (!)

Okay, so I have some tables.

I don't think the information regarding Facebook and Twitter adds a great deal of value, but it's worth sharing nonetheless. I think it was at least an interesting little experiment. The columns show the change in likes/followers for the last two weeks in the run up to the election (well, up until the 08/12/19 anyway, which was when I last took note. The election of course being on December 12th.).

I actually have three weeks worth of information, but I didn't have the correct Facebook page for the Conservative candidate for the first two weeks (doh!). So it's skewed a little. I may tabulate that too though, as what I was really interested in was the change over the weeks. Thinking it might give a measure of momentum.

(click to enlarge)

I've colour coded first, second and third ranking in each column. Unsurprisingly more likes/followers tends to crudely correlate with more votes. I've also included a column showing the increase in likes/followers as a percentage of that candidate's likes/followers.

Obviously it's easy to get more attention and traffic once you're an established figure, as your following then amplifies your message. Meaning you can then reach even more people with every post. So 20 new followers for someone with a 100 followers is much more impressive than 20 new followers for someone with 100,000. The first one hundred subs are the hardest as they say.

However, the really interesting figures are the standard figures we've all seen by now, showing the actual votes and the change in vote share. Something I haven't really commented upon yet.

Interestingly, the Conservative vote share dropped. Though just a little. This would kind of back up my general feeling that the Conservatives never had a chance here. Especially as they fielded a candidate from quite a good way away. It's all a little moot though as with Labour hanging on to over 50% of the vote it means that it was highly unlikely any other candidate could've won. Even had the pro-Brexit vote not been split three ways.

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