Monday, December 30, 2019

Stockton North - Labour Hold

This is one that was pretty close, with the Conservatives just a thousand or so votes behind. So it could have switched.

(click to enlarge)

Perhaps the most noticeable thing about this table is the lack of social media figures for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Again, as with the last few posts, it could just be a case that I couldn't find them. After all, I did spend a lot less time and effort looking at these seats in comparison to Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.

The fact that I couldn't find them in of itself (even if they were there) says something valuable though. If I struggled to find them no doubt others did too. And most people don't go out of their way to look. It's normally a case of the candidate party reaching out to them.

The Brexit Party took a near four thousand votes here. So it's easy to make the case that had they not stood much of those votes would've went to the Conservative candidate, swinging the seat. However, in reality it's not so cut and dry and it's clear that the Brexit Party across the north badly damaged Labour too.

You wonder if a bigger, more active push on the social media front could've made the difference here for the Conservatives. Not just through garnering more votes, but also by driving the general sense of confidence and momentum.

I should really refrain from this type of guesswork though, as again, my knowledge of this seat and the various campaigns running was very limited.

(Feel free to add or correct any information in the comments below).

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