The Neil Ferguson model of austerity.

We're starting to see more conversations about how all this will be paid for now. This morning we're seeing claims that local councils will have to make 20% cuts to services due to the lock down unless the government steps in to fill that black hole too. You can never be sure how accurate these claims are of course, but common sense tells you the overall price has to be fairly hefty.

I don't want to start making outlandish claims about the carnage that will come; "Millions will die because of lock down austerity!" In a way you're just falling into the same hysteria that led to the outlandish coronavirus numbers. The Neil Ferguson model of austerity. So I'm trying to be measured. It does worry me when I look at what's happening though.

(I'm predicting 23.4 billion deaths)

We're mothballing entire high streets and other "non-essential" services, with people thinking we can just switch these things back on like a light switch when we do decide to reopen.

Reality generally doesn't work like that though. For example, if you take a house on a street. This is a common example we've all witnessed. If people move out and the place becomes empty for a while then the longer it remains empty the more the problems will rack up. If it's empty for a few weeks then it won't be too bad. If it's empty for six months then the problems become apparent. The garden becomes overgrown. Theft and vandalism take their toll - especially in a poorer area. The elements take their effect. Particularly so in the winter when pipes freeze over or damp on the walls gets out of hand as there's no one in the house using the central heating.

In short, if you don't have a human being in a property maintaining and guarding it then it slowly falls into ruin. Again, we've all seen the odd derelict, eyesore house on a road that no one wants to buy because it's simply not worth the cost to fix it up.

We're now in the process of doing that to entire high streets. The same effects will naturally take their toll ..and you can probably add to that the rats and mice that will now be having a party in many of these buildings. Most notably restaurants and other properties that may still have stores of food on the premises.

And that's if these businesses do actually survive this and return to fix the mess.